Global dairy market continue the imbalance - glimmer of hope China's imports
The running almost 2 years milk price misery triggered by the import lock of Russia and the halving of China's imports in increasing milk supply.
Russia remains back due to limited purchasing power far behind the import behavior of earlier years. The hopes for a return to the old conditions are low.
The expectations that focused on China's import behavior are all the greater. In the past few years before 2014 rose Chinese imports with annual growth rates of 20% to 50% depending on the product. This behavior broke down but still in the year 2014 to half and largely so continued in the year 2015.
At the beginning of the year 2016 a considerable increase of China imports amounting to 39% in quarterly comparison is again to determine, though emanating from a low level. The high rates of growth will be 1. Line in the sector of milk powder and mixing products reached. Also in the field of child nutrition, import increases are observed.
Given the improvement in the Chinese economy, there is a hope that further continues the development of the first quarter.
So come to swing in the market on the demand side. However lacks sufficient braking force of low milk prices on the supply side. The typical inverse offer behavior has currently have the upper hand. In leading areas of milk production milk production increases despite low and falling prices still in the first months of the year 2016.
Currently, the milk market is characterized on the one hand by a seasonal falling production in the southern hemisphere or by adverse weather conditions in Argentina, on the other hand the milk production in the northern hemisphere reaches its seasonal peak in the months of May and June. The increase in volumes in the North are slightly larger than the reduction in the South.
MMP, which exists at world level in überreichlichem mass remains the problem child. In the EU public intervention warehouses stack now about 220,000 t which have been bought to the guaranteed minimum price. The other milk products assumes the private storage in claim. As long as the inventories rather up-when are mined, is not to go out of a basic market relief with significant price increases.