Waiting for China's recovery of imports of milk products
She had its cause in the strong range expansion in the financial year now rd. 1 year continuous plummeting milk prices in all producing regions of the world on the one hand 2013/14. On the demand side but also the failure became apparent imports and the restraint of China's Russian.
Meanwhile, economic output growth worldwide to almost zero is has been shut down. Only the United States due to their weather conditions favourable basic food supply, that more have been as cheap as since almost a decade does not produce above the average of previous years.
The recent modest recovery of milk production is predominantly on the seasonal delivery increasen Willow buoyancy during in the northern hemisphere.
On the demand side , but no fundamental change of the shopping behavior of the two main import countries, Russia and China is to determine.
The Russian import lock has been extended recently. Cheese imports of Russia behind since the beginning of the year 2015 to 62% behind the previous year. Only 10,000 tons will be introduced instead an average 30,000 tons per month. In particular, the EU will be affected the most.
Butter imports of Russia's lagging both are approximately 8,000 tons or 64% behind the previous year behind, but in March and April slight increasing trends were evident.
The Russian imports of skimmed-milk powder are of minor importance. You will have to assume, that Russia on foreseeable both for political and financial reasons the import volume of previous years will not restore.
The volume of China's imports is of much greater significance. In the first five months of the year 2015, whole milk powder were imported instead of about 100,000 t only about 40,000 t per month. Skimmed milk powder, about 31% or 15,000 t per month are missing. Chinese butter imports have fallen by 40% in the months may 2015 Jan.
Although a stabilization trend is evident in all sectors, but the quantities for the time being remain at the low level. Thus, the demand to offer in comparison to previous years remains low to ensure an effective price pressures. It remains a State secret, Chinese stocks are how big yet, before with larger Nachkäufen reserve stocks need to be replenished.
The hope for price improvement could be the combination of a seasonal downturn of production with the exception of the month of October 2015 and rising China imports. In October, New Zealand regularly reaches the climax of his milk deliveries. However, is this year due to lower numbers of cow likely extremely low milk prices and the EL Niño weather phenomenon to a lower increase in the milk delivery in New Zealand.
