New Zealand's dairy for the time being on consolidation
The fallen world milk prices most meet New Zealand as the world's largest exporter of dairy products. Especially restrained China's import demand is to create the exporting country. For the time being is not a return to old Chinese import figures in sight.
The New Zealand dairy industry has responded. The prices paid to milk producers of the two large dairies Fonterra and Westlands have fallen to 24 to €27 ct/kg. These are the worst milk prices for 7 years.
The significant deterioration of profitability in milk production has resulted in a reduction of the portfolio to only 5.21 million dairy cows . This is the largest decline since 1992. In the meantime, there has been only increases upwards. New Zealand was at this stage to the world's largest exporter of dairy products, according to the estimates, should the milk production by 2015/16 back to 21.4 million t (previous year 22 million tonnes) fall back.
New Zealand milk production is currently located at the end of the dairy year. Usually falls the monthly production almost to zero . The year-round grazing knows hardly feed canned food in the form of hay or silage to bridge the food-poor time end of May to mid-July. The cows are driven on the dry riser pastures.
In the transition to the August, the cows calve off focus. Milk production rises with increasing grass growth. The peak of the Milchsaison will be in the Oct one year achieved with a monthly milk production by more than 3 million tonnes.
As the almost exclusive Frischgrasorientierte dairy stands or falls on the result with the performance of the pastures. The growth is highly dependent on adequate rainfall. The high probability of an El Nino weather conditions by 2015/16 makes one fear that prolonged dry periods can again reduce the production potential. However, New Zealand usually is less affected than Australia's milk production.
An declining supply of dairy products from the two countries could play lift the milk prices. Even more important, however, is a speedy "normalization" of China imports.
