OECD - FAO Preview on the global milk market by 2023

OECD-FAO preview with favourable prospects for the milk market

The milk market in the past 10 years is to be divided into two phases. A Government minimum pricing certain combined with national surpluses in North America and Europe the milk market on the one hand up to the year 2006. On the other hand, market prices were paid on the so-called remaining "world market", which were affected by subsidised surplus exports. Between these two areas, differences in price level existed from 50 up to 100%.

The market situation changed fundamentally with the years 2007. Market prices doubled within a few months. Heavily mined surplus stocks in Europe and the United States delivery failures of leading exporting countries - in particular, Oceania - and strong demand caused mainly China - a considerable shortage until then unknown with corresponding consequences for the prices weather from Asian emerging markets -.

The episode high price levels basically continues today, but was interrupted by 2 events. The year 2009 brought a price drop here stressed the demand side of the global financial crisis. A second, but significantly lower price downturn was 2012 through weathering and price factors triggered strong offer increases in leading exporting countries. In 2013, scarce basic food in the United States and Europe as well as high feed prices on the one hand, and disproportionately high import increases of China's again drove international milk prices at the highest level.

The high price level of the previous year has cast into far in the first half of 2014. Is later in 2014 with price-induced supply increases and falling feed costs, as well as decreasing import increase with a moderate, but still on the multiannual mean this rates.

For the years 2018, the OECD estimates for the time being a continuation of this moderate price levels. In the 4 major production countries EU (no quota limit), United States, Oceania and India, sustained high growth rates are expected by 1.9% (in the last decade 2.2%) in the production.

India's milk production will surpass the previously leading EU production. Nonetheless, India self catering with the exception of MMP exports. The EU is one of the countries, their productivity should be moderated. After the drastic fall in production in 2013 China will improve its own small-scale milk production with State support, so that in future sustained import demand somewhat more moderately than in the past few years with annual import increases of 15% to 35% depending on the product.

For the remainder of the forecast period by 2023, the OECD expects again with higher nominal prices of milk. This emerging differences between the individual milk product groups. Butter fat are much lower are considered milk protein. Particularly strong price increases are predicted for the cheese range.

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