Forecast of the European Commission to the milk market by 2015 and 2016
In their short-term perspective on key agricultural markets, the Commission sees the milk market on a slight growth in the next two years. There is no mention of an abrupt increase in milk production after the quota limit. To realize however, is a significantly higher milk supply has occurred in previous years from 2013 to 2014 than in previous years. Minor temporary cow stock increases and an increasing milk yield per cow have helped. The high milk prices are likely to have been background of this burst of growth.
For the years 2015 and 2016 after the quota system the milk production continues according to Commission estimates on moderate level with rates of increase to 1.2% and 0.6% respectively . The number of cows to go back slightly, but the milk yield per cow and year continues to increase. This development takes place above all in the new Central and Eastern European Member countries. Point out the high numbers of battle of old cows and heifers and already in the second half of the year 2014 at falling milk prices.
Only in Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands , a higher milk deliveries is expected with continuing high levels of cow.
Increasing milk production is reflected in all sectors of the milk used. Particularly strong increases are expected in the cheese and skimmed-milk powder. The comparatively small quota for milk powder will be used off essential. domestically . The consumption increases lie in the average 2%. The consumption trends in the other milk products are considered close to or less than 1%.
In order to come the export of milk products the crucial to. For cheese exports, increases of 5% to 7% are expected. The EU Commission estimates even 8 to 15% increasesfor skimmed-milk powder . The butter sales to third countries is estimated at 9-10% . Only the milk powder exports can contend as just in the past few years -.
A strong motivation for the high export volumes is the weak euro exchange rate, which promotes European exports in the competition. Space creates the recognizable covered offers from New Zealand due to increasing scarcity of fodder for international sales. A stabilization or slight recovery recovery of demand from the Asian region gives new impulses.
In contrast, is to point out that from the oil-exporting countries demand significantly subside because of the weak crude oil revenues. That makes European exports of skimmed-milk powder and cheese in particular.
The self-sufficiency levels for individual dairy products vary only slightly. In the individual Member States different developments should be but observable.
The fallen milk prices are likely to initially provide a restrained market development . Also the usual seasonal milk increase in supply in the early summer months will ensure that prices for the time being remain in the moderate range.
