08.
10.15
11:34

Seasonal and cyclical developments on the milk market

Global milk supply increase: cyclical and seasonal influences .

The monthly changes of milk available in leading exporting countries of the world point to significantly lower growth rates. This development was initiated already in the mid of the year 2014 and 2015 reached a first hit rock bottom in the early months.

Then prevailed the seasonal effect of early summer ("Willow shoots effect"), again but losing with the late summer dates at effect.

In addition to the typical season effects the overall development substantially through the course of the milk price is controlled. The price crash mid-2014 was a result of high range increases, triggered by a previous high price level, and a drastic decline in demand due to the Russia and decreasing imports of China's import lock.

The ongoing expansion of production could be turned back to the same extent with the drop in demand, but kept its momentum until the end of 2014. On the development of the EU-28 with the highest rates of increase between 2% and 3%, United States and New Zealand involved with increases to 2% each are decisive.

Low milk prices and the quotas in the EU have cut the offer development in the early months of the year 2015.  While already negative growth rates were observed in the EU and New Zealand, held out the U.S. milk production with consistent growth rates. The above-average U.S. revenues of butter and cheese, which will record far beyond the international courses are background.  

With the end of the EU quota and the seasonal expansion of early summer , the EU vigorously rose production, while in New Zealand, the production aims to early July to zero. The increases in the United States have been throttled down to a low level.  

For further development is to be expected with the usual autumn offer fall in the northern hemisphere . In the southern hemisphere the milk delivery regularly reached the peak in October. In New Zealand usually increases the amount of milk from almost zero to about 3 million t per month. New Zealand milk prices of converted 22 ct / cow's with 20% on the previous year's and kg can expect a less large delivery of milk in the largest export region in the world. In the background, still drought by the El Niño weather phenomenon during the period around the turn of the year threatens to March 2016.  

The high price increases by almost 60% to the global dairy tradeauctions in the last 2 months the expectations to a significantly lower dimming range partly already have anticipated.

Although not as dark look for milk payment prices in the EU the perspectives. But as long as itself in the public and private storage warehouses the skim milk and butter stocks still accumulate, the inflation in this country only in temperate orbits will be.

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