02.
11.16
15:58

Tighter supply / demand ratios drive milk prices

Global decline in the milk delivery generated prices of milk products Milk deliveries is reduced since early summer 2016 compared to the previous months in major production areas. Significant reductions are found in the EU, New Zealand, Australia, and many smaller regions. Only the United States are still 2-3% on the previous year with their milk delivery. Balance is calculated on world level a 1.5 to 2% economic decrease of milk production for the month of June 2016. The latest findings come from Australia with further cuts of production, which is estimated at up to 8% for the rest of the year. Also New Zealand suffers from currently unfavourable weather conditions in the North Island, so that further losses for the delivery of milk and the export opportunities of the world's largest exporter of dairy products is expected. The incurred and expected reduction in the supply of milk products on a world level since may 2016 has led to a significant rise in prices . EU butter prices are within 3 months from 250 to 400 €/ 100 kg increase. Whole milk powder and cheese also showed a strong increase of course, have increased but only half as much. In the case of skimmed-milk powder, slowing a rapid price increase in EU intervention stocks, are but with over 200 euros per 100 kg, the intervention price of approximately 170 €/ 100 kg. At international level, the price increases measured fall to the auction results of global dairy trade (GDT) still better off. The latest GDT auction brought a price jump by an average of 11%. This drew the attention of in particular milk powder at a price premium 2 weeks of nearly 20% up. To an considerable rise in demand has made an additional contribution the price improvements. In particular, China and some crude oil exporting States exhibit higher import figures. The foreseeable closer supply-demand ratio is raising the prices for future delivery dates in the new year to a higher level. The prospects for the coming year are favorable. However, needs experience with seasonal be expected cuts to the turn of the year.

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