20.
07.15
16:58

USDA. new estimate of the global milk market, 2015

USDA: global milk market of 2015 - braked milk production and consumption

Appearing twice in the annual report on the global dairy market situation, the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) has updated its forecast of the Dec 2014 for 2015 and revised down.

On the basis of the 15 most important milk producing country is the milk production by 2015 to around 490 million tonnes (previous year 485,1 million t) estimated. Approximately 2 million to help more cows (almost all in India) and an average increase in performance. Compared to the previous year, the increase is less than 1%.

For the EU-28 the USDA estimates a rising production of 0.5 million tonnes to 147 million tonnes in 2015. The cow numbers with 23.5 million animals vary only slightly.  The average of EU milk production is about 6,250 kg. The fresh milk consumption of 34.5 million tonnes will remain largely unchanged. The production of cheese is a slightly rising consumption with 8.97 million tonnes estimated on consistent 9,57 million tonnes in the EU, of which in the country are consumed is. Go approx. 0.6 million cheese in a variety of countries, after the major Russia exports are account for. The EU butter production increases only marginally to 2.3 million tons, of which 2.1 million tonnes of butter in the EU are consumed.  

The skimmed-milk powder production of the EU increases by 4.5% to 1.62 million tons. Moderately rising domestic consumption by 0.9 million tonnes, the excess amount on third-country markets is in the Mediterranean, to depose Middle East and Southeast Asia. The EU whole-milk powder production is about 1% back to 0.65 million tonnes. Half of it is exported.

Set in the United States to the milk production to around 1 million tonnes. The number of cow with 9.3 million animals increasing only marginally.  The average milk yield reached 10.185 kg. Of the 95 million tonnes of milk production, approximately 29 million tonnes in the falling consumption of fresh go. The U.S. production of cheese and cheese consumption increasing slightly. The cheese trade 0.145 million tons are on the export side 0,365 million tonnes and on the import side, introduced partly from the EU. The U.S. butter production covers just the own needs with 0.85 million tonnes. Therefore, also the U.S. butter prices is significantly above the international level. The US m-milk production (MMP) in the amount of 1 million tonnes of gaining a bit, but less than half is needed in their own country. The MMP exports compete fiercely with those of the EU, New Zealand, and Australia. Whole milk powder plays a minor role in the United States.

India as a 3-largest milk producer (without buffalo milk), the amount of milk to 3 million tonnes and a milk yield of 1,210 kg per cow increases with increasing his herd of cows around 2 million tonnes to 63.5 million tonnes. Of them, 95% of fresh milk in their own country are consumed. The Indian butter production ranges from 5 million tonnes only for their own needs. The accumulating skimmed milk goes to a small part in the export.

New Zealand has reduced his herd of cows due to lack of feed and low milk prices to 63,000 animals on 5.2 million animals. The milk is auschließlicher grazing to 4,200 kg. For 2015, the milk production will fall below last year's level to 21.6 million tonnes. The El Niño year 2015 with possible drought could affect the production even further. From striking any production changes in the export with an export share of 95%. The whole milk powder production and export to fall to - 4,5% to 1.36 million tonnes. The production of skimmed-milk powder and the export rise only marginally. The butter production and exports go back to - 2.6% to 0.56 million tonnes. The New Zealand cheese production and exports should be 7% or  11% put the neighboring country Australia should maintain its dairy industry almost intact. However, there is a high risk by the weather phenomenon El Niño, which usually harm Australia's great with dry spells in the South-East.  

Argentina will have to cope with the biggest percentage decline. The dairy industry is out to be reduced weather related food shortages and financial reasons rd.-9%. This is noticeable in particular in the sector of milk powder-13%.

On the demand side the major importing areas of China and Russia are in the focus of interest. The Chinese VMP imports lower classified to 40% and 270,000 tons over the previous year.  Thus lack about 30% of world trade. Of the MMP are installe 275 million tonnes just 200,000,000 estimated. The missing amount of world trade in this case is approximately 7% of Russia's import ban leads to a covered cheese imports of about 21% with a focus at the expense of the EU. Butter imports, Russia reduced its import amounts to about 37 million tonnes or about 35%.

The global dairy industry 2015 is characterised by a significantly slower milk production in the average of the major areas of production, a strong reduction in the import demand of major importing countries of Russia and China and a cyclical decline in price, which comes close to the year 2009 with the financial crisis.

However, unlike than it did is a speedy recovery recovery of high amounts of demand in current development not to be expected. The Russian import failures are not only politically, but also financially-related. China's restrained import behavior rises a gemäßigterem economic growth. The food reserves heaped-up are only slowly being dismantled. For the time being, the high growth rates in imports belong to the past.

Therefore, an appropriate adjustment on the production side is required for the next time. Low milk prices to slow down the increase in production. An improvement in import demand will adjust only slowly again.

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