USDA: views of the global milk market 2015
In its twice annual preview of the global dairy market, the U.S. Department of agriculture has (USDA) views to the year 2015 dared. The forecasts are strongly under the sign of highly uncertain-to-appreciating developments.
Makes Russia the limits for milk imports again after 8 August 2015 as provided or not?
What Russia can import potential again activate after its economic collapse and the high loss of purchasing power of the ruble?
How develop the crude oil prices in the year 2015 and implications for the global economy are to be expected?
And China's import demandremains the great unknown!
The production development is comparatively less critical to assess. The global milk production to 2015 by below-average 1.9% (previous year + 3.2%) increase. The multi-year increases average of 2.3%.
A hardly significant increase is expected for the world's largest production area of EU (161 million tonnes). The Commission assumes in its forecast of an increase of 1.6%.
It is estimated a 2.9% increase milk production in the United States as the second-largest producer. The fallen food prices for a strong feed-oriented U.S. milk production are background.
The two South American countries, Argentina and Brazil will only marginally change their production. A considerable part of production will remain in their own country.
India has while on a large milk production (2015: 63.5 million t o. buffalo milk), however the quantities to the rising supply be used. Exception of skimmed-milk powder.
The largest export region in New Zealand should increase the amount of milk (2015: 22 million t) according to USDA estimates by 2%. The forecasts are significantly lower in New Zealand itself. However, it is the absolute amounts only to a difference of 0.5 million tonnes.
In the neighbouring country of Australia with 9.8 million tonnes production remains unchanged, aving drought the feed volume has reduced significantly.
On the demand side is China's import behavior for full and skimmed-milk powder in the Center. The Chinese trade shares are 60% or 25%. The USDA estimates a 12.5% drop in the imports of VMP, but an increase of nearly 9% in the case of skimmed-milk powder for 2015. Large Chinese stocks, which should be used up less quickly in lower income increase is based on the estimates. Behind it stands also the presumption that own generation should be protected against a too urgent competition.
Russia's stagnant imports of butter make up about 45% of world trade. It remains uncertain to what extent it by 2015 remains at the same levels as in previous years. The USDA is based on this assumption.
This also applies to the Russian imports of cheese, which take up 25% of world trade.
The year 2015 will be characterised by persistently low milk prices according to the USDA. More favourable prospects are seen only for the second half of the year. Overall, the year 2015 is subject to considerable uncertainty
