USDA: Preview of the milk market in 2016

USDA: World milk production 2016 + 1.55%, rising only half as high as 2014

The cow's milk production in the world's most important countries should in the increasing years 2016 almost exactly as much as in the year 2015. Compared to 2014 the increases fall back but on more than half.

Expect the biggest increase in milk production as well as in the previous years in India. However, the country essentially is a self-catering, so generating more has hardly any noteworthy market effect with the exception of skimmed-milk powder exports.

China's growth rate by 2% moves in the usual way. It helps that the Chinese import demand does not reach the high growth rates of the past. Measured on the huge needs of the population increase in the Chinese supply is however comparatively low. For Chinese conditions, the derezeitigen Milchpeise are however too low to invest more.

Increasing to almost 2% to the U.S. milk production to the previous year. However, the current monthly developments with zero growth look not then. In addition, US prices of the two most important factors fall butter and cheese, which were sometimes twice as high as the international courses.

It is estimated a 0.6% increase in the world's largest production area EU-28 . Also here is the opposite finding that rather a cyclical higher gait has presented the most recent months. However a seasonal downturn is imminent in the 1st quarter of 2016, which possibly could be higher than in previous years. In particular the so far still an above-average growing production on grassland site as E.g. in Ireland with + 10% could trigger a braking effect.

Despite inadequate import possibilities, does not Russia to extend its milk production. This is in 1. Line to a structural problem, because about 50% of the production takes place in the context of the backyard economy. Industrial milk processing and appropriate logistics is still not widespread.  In addition to invest in agricultural sectors with capital return short-lived; This does not includes the dairy industry. The previous Government support measures have achieved so far have little effect.

Russian replacements fail outside the locked-down supplier countries often weak energy price-related weak purchasing power and the depreciated Ruble rate.

For the assessment of the price development it depends on priority, what developments in the leading export and import countries are taking place. This includes New Zealand, whose production and export for 2016 to about 3% lower is classified in 1st place. China, whose milk powder imports will rise between 5% and 15% is the leading position on the import side.

Contribute for a you could balance the EU and the United States , which emanate from rising export figures.  In the United States full cream milk powder (VPMP) hardly plays a significant role. In the case of butter and cheese, the Americans net importers in the EU are VMP is half as important as skimmed-milk powder. Butter and cheese exports gain an increasing importance. However, the expected growth rates hold for 2016 in borders.

An worldwide throttled increase milk production and recognizable signs of rising import requirements could provide a slight increase of in milk prices. But the seasonally weak trajectories must be especially in the summer months to take into account.

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