Milk price recovery - an illusion? GDT results do not come out of the valley floorbefore the background of the average results of the global dairy trade auctions, the Benchmark Test for the international dairy prices are regarded as doubts are expressed, that anytime the used milk price recovery in the United States and the EU of duration will be. In the ten-year comparison remains the GDT milk price index remains in the lower half of the long-term price scale. The last 3 auction results didn't, about the value of zero change. This is all the more remarkable than the milk delivery in Oceania at this time on the bottom and on the northern hemisphere peak in May/June is already exceeded. Start the Milchsaison again in August for New Zealand and Australia and reached their maximum delivery experience in October 2016. In New Zealand, milk production rises usually 0.25 million tons in July to 3 million tonnes in October. The additional amounts of press time stretched to more than 95% in export. Is the seasonal milk deliveries in the EU , however, from about 13.5 million t approximately 12 million t. reduced EU deliveries take the immediate pressure of the market though, but considerable amounts of stock in the intervention and private storage have accumulated in the EU's. Less pronounced in the United States is the season due to the feed-based milk production. The maximum delivery in May with 8.3 million tonnes and comes back up in the OCT to 7.7 million tonnes. On the supply side will be crucial, whether and to what extent a cyclical attenuation of the quantities of the delivery takes place, i.e. whether or not the usual seasonal ascent / descent or as possible below the previous line moved. One sets based on the monthly rates of change of 10 leading milkexport regions to the same period last year is in recent times the average increase of 2.5% in the first 5 months 2016 on below 0.5 fallen % as compared to the same month last year. In particular the smaller dairy producer regions have their production withdrawn by more than 1%. Small are growth rates in the EU and the United States be noted. Partly considerable differences between individual milk products and regions. Butter prices % on the New Zealand exchange rates within the EU + 10.4% and in the United States to + 71. In the case of skimmed-milk powder very are close competitors. At the whole milk powder US prices exceed the rates in New Zealand are + 31.8%. The EU is higher than NZ + 11.3%. For Cheddar cheese are slightly higher rates of + 2.7% for the EU, while the US quotes to + 23.8% New Zealand lie. It should be noted, that butter and cheese in the United States to the import products include and justify by have a higher price. WMP plays an insignificant role in the United States. There is, however, a considerable overhang in skimmed-milk powder. This also applies to the EU. In the case of butter and cheese prices, the EU benefits from considerable exports towards the United States. Therefore EU butter prices have failed to intervention level in the EU, whereas MMP prices are at times slipped below the minimum level. New Zealand in all cases on the exports , however, is instructed in nearby Asian countries, which demand is currently rather behave. GDT offerings denies whole milk powder at least 50% of the auction. In the case of normal butter and butterfat, the proportion is 5% each. Skimmed-milk powder reaches 3rd. 15% auctioning share. The GDT-Index hangs in 1. Line of the whole milk powder prices, the results of the auction primarily depends on the demand from China. Due to the global MMP surplus situation in all three regions a price is crucial to developing sales in a variety of import countries. The two butter products play a role only in second line. From this point of view the assessment not quite wrong seem, that global milk prices bottomed, and a (tedious) price increase as a result of some ization milk delivery can be justified.
