25.
02.16
17:03

When the milk prices rise again?

A recovery in milk prices can be waiting

The to be observed in earlier years rapid restart recovery of in milk prices after strong courses setbacks will be being realized for the period ahead.

In the years 2007/08 milk prices 5 months from 28 to over 38 ct / kg. Supply bottlenecks in major exporting countries of Oceania, the EU and United States at the same time to grow global demand were the causes.

On the occasion of the financial crisis of 2008/09 milk prices had fallen back intervention level up on EU rd. 21 ct / kg, but just eight months later moved the quotes again significantly above the 33 CT / kg mark. Although at the time the intervention was sought, but the decisive push came from China's fast growing import demand. The rising exports have contributed also to Russia.

The limited price downturn in 2012 was also quickly caught by the high rates of growth of China's imports. In the aftermath, the courses rose to over 40 ct / kg within one year.   

The price drop has now been More than a year since fall 2014. For the time being is not to recognize a fundamental turnaround. The causes lie both on the demand as supply side.

The consumption page missing from the imports to Russia. The first politically-related import ban is stronger today through the decline of crude oil price and the devaluation of the Ruble rate on half justified. Hopes of rising imports of Russia are therefore hard to justify.

Much more, the halving of China imports affects.  While in previous years the Chinese imports were again above average growth rates after a phase of stabilization, is to observe that the Chinese import behavior for a long time almost halved level remains now. A certain build-up of inventories, a weaker purchasing power of China's economic developments and the protection of building an own dairy farming are the main reasons for the restrained import behavior, that at first foreseeable not recognizable change is.

On the supply side , one realizes that despite significant price reduction the global milk production continues to grow. This, especially the EU excels himself, whose production growth not only in volume terms, but also as a percentage is at the top among the exporting countries.  Of the 4 million tonnes surplus generation in 2015, denies the EU only 3.2 million tonnes or shows a growth rate of 2.15%.

Not saleable quantities of EU milk land in increasing amounts in private and public stocks with appropriate government support. As long as these quantities are built not up tangibly, is unlikely to occur with rapid price recoveries. Experience has shown that a further inventory build-up will be to the summer period and more expected. 

In comparison to bring it United States approximately 1.15 million tonnes more milk or a growth rate of 1.18% in 2015.

The other major exporting countries in the dairy sector mostly return their production or  are too small Australia by the amount in the case, to pursue a sustainable effect on the worldwide supply of milk.

Even higher growth rates can be observed while in Self catering country India , but the production of more burdened the global market only marginally, if at all. 90% of Indian production remains in fresh milk.

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