03.
06.15
13:14

World dairy market: significantly reduced supply growth demand arising from Russia and China

Only moderate increase in world milk production due to fallen prices

Gone are the high increases in milk production between 2% and 5% in major export regions of the world in the year 2014. The production increases prices fallen by more than 50% at the world level have clearly slowed down. In some countries, even decreases milk production. After years of ständigenen growth, a withdrawal of milk production by 1 million tonnes or 5% is even for New Zealand dairy year August/July forecast by 2015/16.

In the upcoming months of June and July 2015 is usually expected with a seasonal decline in the milk deliveries.  A possible recovery is due to the peak of Milchsaison in Oceania in October 2015. The increase should be less big this year.

The demand of the year 2015 can be made out clearly in Russia's import failure and the restrained imports of China's .

The Russian import restrictions for the Western countries are not made betting again through import purchases in other regions. The financial difficulties of Russia due to the low crude oil prices and the weak purchasing power of the ruble are Ausschlagegender. Russia's imports of dairy products have fallen without substitution on the half of the previously usual levels.

Restrained demand from China is justified with the stock purchases jammed on, which slowly dismantled as it has estimated so far. Not so much a booming Chinese economy has made its contribution to do so. An increasing equity production is to observe, but has not the power to effect a fundamental change of Chinese import requirements.

Milk prices are currently in the so-called silly season. In the early summer months the milk production increases more in the northern hemisphere than the production decline in the southern hemisphere.  Everywhere falling in the coming months of June and July production quantities at world level could trigger a certain change of mood in terms of milk prices. But it requires in addition a positive demand from China.

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