The European dairy market is in a clear transition phase at the beginning of April 2026. After the sharp price declines in the second half of 2025, the recycling markets are increasingly stabilizing: Skimmed milk powder and butter in particular have recently stabilized, which is also reflected in the increased Kiel raw material value of 33.9 ct/kg.
1st EU market: prices and development
European milk processing continues to show signs of stabilization, while producer prices are still lagging behind.
- EU producer price:
- January 2026: ~45ct/kg
- February 2026 (estimate): ~44ct/kg → further slight decline
- Product markets (February/March stable to firmer):
- Butter: ~430-440 €/100 kg
- SMP: ~250 €/100 kg (clearly recovered)
- WMP: ~340 €/100 kg
- Cheese: sideways
2nd EU milk delivery
- EU delivery January 2026: +4-5 %
- Already 2025: rising production (+1-2%)
The market remains oversupplied, which limits the price recovery
3 Germany: Milk supply
- Beginning of 2026:
- +5-6 % compared to the previous year
- Weekly basis:
- still above previous year and seasonally high
Germany is currently the main driver of oversupply in the EU
- still above previous year and seasonally high
4th Germany: Kiel commodity value
- February 2026: 33.9 ct/kg
- January 2026: 30.3 ct/kg
→ +11.9 % m/m - First significant recovery
- Driven by:
- rising SMP prices
- more stable butter prices
But: still significantly below previous year
5th Germany: producer prices
- December 2025: 43.5 ct/kg
- January 2026: ~39-42ct/kg
- falling further
- Reaction to weak months before
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The European dairy market is in a clear transition phase at the beginning of April 2026.
Despite some positive signals, the situation remains tense. Milk deliveries in Europe, and particularly in Germany, are still significantly higher than the previous year, which is putting structural pressure on the market. This is particularly evident on the spot market: at 14-15 ct/kg, raw milk is still trading at an extremely low level - a clear sign of persistent supply pressure.
While the futures market on the EEX is already stable and signaling a bottoming out, producer prices are lagging behind and continue to trend downwards. This creates a typical market constellation: industrial utilization is improving faster than payments to farmers.
The milk market is stabilizing on the product side, but remains under pressure due to high volumes. A sustainable recovery will only be possible when milk deliveries fall noticeably and the situation on the fat market continues to ease.
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