Raw milk / producer prices
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According to the EU Milk Market Observatory, the spot price for raw milk continues to be the focus of market transparency.
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CLAL statistics indicate a weighted EU average price ("farm-gate milk price") of €54.53/100 kg for September 2025
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This means that the milk price remains at a high level compared to the previous year, albeit with a moderate adjustment trend.
Butter & fat products
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The European butter price is currently under noticeable pressure: CLAL data for the "Western Europe - International Market" market area indicates a butter price range of €5,526 - €6,725/t for Friday, September 26, 2025 (decline of around -6.01% compared to the previous period)
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According to Vespertool, the Vesper Butter Price Index in the EU fell to €6,700/t (EXW basis) at the beginning of September
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Global market reports already warn of a surplus in the butter market and the beginning of a weak phase: The global butter market seems to be turning around, as a supply surplus of approx. 56,500 tons is reported compared to the first half of 2024
Cheese / milk fat utilization
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For cheese (e.g. cheddar and other varieties), no reliable current EU spot values are available in the transparent sources for this week.
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According to experts, cheese prices in Europe are currently under pressure, in line with the decline in butter / fat components.
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Reports on the EU market highlight that increased cheese stocks and falling exports are weighing on cheese prices. Cheese dairies report that cheese stocks increased in Q2 2025, partly due to lower export demand
Production / supply situation & export structure
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In the second quarter of 2025, milk deliveries in the EU increased slightly (up 0.06% on the previous year) - this increase was mainly due to the processing of milk into cheese and powder.
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At the same time, exports of dairy products fell in some segments: WMP and cheese were exported less in some cases, as the euro strengthened against competitors and global competitiveness suffered.
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The EU market forecasts for 2025 see a slight decline in milk production due to lower cow numbers, cost and regulatory pressure.
Futures, indices & market expectations
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The EEX Butter Index lists a current average in the order of ≈ 6,357 €/t (index value) according to EEX "Agriculturals Indices"
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Butter futures are generally expected to decline, as spot prices have already fallen - market participants are pricing in falling values.
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For SMP (skimmed milk powder), some market observations show a certain weakness or downward trend in futures - the pressure on fat components is also affecting the powder sector.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The dairy market is in a transition phase - from a bullish trend to a neutral/bearish phase. The fat components (butter, cheese fats) are showing clear weakness, while raw milk is currently still signaling stability.
It can be assumed that there will be further pressure on butter prices with possible declines in the spot segment.
Cheese prices are under pressure. A moderate downward trend is expected, depending on the development of exports.
Possible adjustments to raw milk prices are also expected if the buyer markets weaken noticeably.
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