16.
03.23
Easter business stimulates demand for molded butter

Milch News, 03/16/2023

Bullish
  • European goods (partially) competitive again
  • good butter demand
  • good cheese demand
  • Euro/dollar ratio
Bearish
  • higher milk volume compared to the previous year
  • seasonal milk yield development
  • good product availability
  • partly increased reluctance on the part of buyers

Education price index

skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
03/15/2023 2.€630 €2,480 €2,640 €2,583 -37 €
03/03/2023 €2,650 €2,600 €2,610 €2,620 €10
03/01/2023 €2,650 €2,600 2.€580 €2,610 €33
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
1503.2023 €4,750 €4,800 €4,840 €4,797 €40
03/03/2023 €4,650 €4,800 €4,820 €4,757 -165 €
03/01/2023 €4,865 4.€850 €5,050 4.€922 €164
liquid milk cents/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
13.03.2023 58.65 60.00 60.36 67.58 61.65 -1.04
02/13/2023 57.88 62.51 51.45 68.9 62.69 -0.96

The increase in milk volume eased off at the beginning of March. Compared to the previous week, around 0.2 percent less raw milk was served. According to preliminary calculations, the previous year's level up to the 9th calendar week will be exceeded by 3.2 percent. Spotmark milk fell again significantly in the last week to 28.4 cents/kg on average across Germany. Good availability of goods can be seen on the raw materials markets, which encourages buyers to take a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the large quantities, there is an increased price drop again. Both cream and skimmed milk concentrate are being traded at lower prices again. In Kempten, the quotation for formed butter at the upper end of the trading range fell. In consumer markets, the 250-gram branded butter is currently sold at 1.49 euros, which is 16 cents less than a year ago. In anticipation of the Easter holidays, orders from the food retail trade are picking up again and market participants are also expecting increased demand for packaged butter in the coming days. The prices for block butter were able to increase. The South German Butter and Cheese Exchange raised prices by 5 cents at the low end and 15 cents at the high end.On the EEX, the settlement prices fell slightly on a weekly basis. Business activities continue to run smoothly. New deals are occasionally taking place again. Deliveries in the second half of the year are also still being negotiated, but deals have only very rarely been concluded so far. The orders for semi-hard cheese are at an unchanged level. However, the call-offs are now concentrating again on smaller packaging units. Invigorating impulses come from the export business. Here, call-offs and outgoing goods are significantly higher than a few weeks ago. The prices remain unchanged. The listing commission in Hanover left both block and bread products at an unchanged level. Since the goods issues are high, inventories have recently decreased again despite the higher production. Food-grade skimmed milk powder paused its upward correction. When listed in Kempten, the trading range was reduced by an average of 20 euros. The market development is described as calmer compared to the previous week.Due to the high milk deliveries, sufficient skimmed milk concentrate was available and the availability of dry matter has recently increased again. Demand on the world market has also dropped due to the beginning of Ramadan in Muslim countries. Discussions for deliveries in the third and fourth quarters are being held, but do not lead to new business due to significantly different price expectations. Skimmed milk powder also fell again on the EEX. Buyers of feed-grade skimmed milk powder are showing restraint. The listings are falling again significantly, the demand is currently weak. The market for whole milk powder is also quiet. The availability of goods is also more than sufficient for the current demand. Business is primarily done at a low volume level in the domestic market with the food industry. The export business has again slightly declined. There is still no clear direction for whey powder . The trading margins move in a wide corridor.Inquiries are received from the manufacturers, there is interest in particular from the domestic market, but there is also increased interest in whey powder in food quality in exports. On the animal feed market, buyers have largely covered their needs in recent weeks and are currently hardly asking for new goods. Goods can only be placed here with price concessions.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The bottom line is that the milk market is moving sideways. While cheese and molded butter are readily available, the powder markets remain difficult due to the very good availability of goods. We are still assuming that a bottom will form, which will become more and more solid.

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