13.
04.23
Higher powder production

Milch News, 04/13/2023

Bullish
  • good demand for cheese
  • young and below average cheese stocks
  • international competitiveness (partially) restored
  • approaching end of Ramadan boosts export expectations
Bearish
  • high inventories of skimmed milk powder
  • higher milk delivery compared to the previous year
  • milk yield development
  • attractive euro vs. dollar
Listing results milk products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
04/12/23 2,350 until 2550
4/5/23 2.380 until 2580
Branded butter (moulded 250 g), €/kg
04/12/23 4.88 until 5.06
4/5/23 4.98 until 5:16
Emmental and square hard cheese (45% fat in dry matter), €/kg
04/12/23 6.10 until 7:15
05.04.23 6.10 until 7:15
Gouda/Edam, block (48%/45%/40% fat in dry matter), €/kg
04/12/23 3.35 until 3.55
4/5/23 3.30 until 3.50

The momentum in milk delivery has slowed. In the 13th calendar week, around 0.1% more milk was served than in the previous week. In the entire observation period up to the 13th calendar week, 3 percent more milk was delivered compared to the previous year. After Easter, the raw material markets continued to show weaker tendencies. On the one hand, sufficient milk is available for production, on the other hand, dryers in particular are only cautiously asking for additional quantities of skimmed milk concentrate. Cream is also traded less due to the weakening demand for block butter and is falling in price. Sports market milk is currently given as 27.7 cents/kg in the federal average and is therefore 0.2 cents firmer than in the previous week. The quotations for formed butter were lowered by 10 cents at the top and bottom at the price determination of the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten yesterday. Demand has already relaxed during Holy Week and the food retail trade is calling off goods at the usual seasonal level. Consumer prices remain unchanged at 1.49 euros for the 250 gram pack.There are also fewer activities at the Blockbuttermarkt because of the Easter holidays. Retailers have already stocked up sufficiently in advance for these two short weeks. Discussions and inquiries are ongoing for the third quarter, market participants continue to report significantly different price expectations between dairies and customers. The listing in Kempten continued unchanged yesterday. On the futures market of the EEX exchange, the early delivery dates were again weaker, but the settlement prices for the second half of 2023 also fell again. Bid and ask prices are usually far apart, the trading volume is also subdued in the Easter week. During Holy Week in particular, the food retail trade increased and ordered more quantities of semi-hard cheese from the manufacturers. In the current week, however, there are again lower call-off quantities, which are still at a high level in terms of quantity. Extensive demands are being made from the sales channels of industry and bulk consumers at stable prices. Manufacturers are also satisfied with export activities.The stocks are mostly described as comparatively small and young. Block and bread goods were continued at a stable level with friendly demand at the price quotation in Hanover yesterday. The butter and cheese exchange also left its prices unchanged yesterday and reported very good demand, especially for Emmental cheese. While cheese and block butter are stable, the powder markets remain under pressure overall. Food-grade skimmed milk powder is currently only being ordered with restraint; if deals are made, they will be at a lower level. The holiday period around Easter also dampens business activities. Overall, the range of goods is very extensive, which also puts pressure on the price development. According to official information, around 24 percent more skimmed milk powder was produced in the first two months of this year than in the previous year. There is currently no impetus from the export business, and demand from third countries is described as cautious.Yesterday's trading day on the EEX in Leipzig saw firmer prices being traded in the early months, but prices have fallen overall over the last week. Money and letters are also currently far apart. In the early months of trading, purchase offers were also significantly reduced compared to the previous days. Whole milk and whey powder are being traded calmly and are falling in price. However, food-grade whey powder seems to be in somewhat greater demand again. Market participants are now reporting increased requests from manufacturers.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

A clear direction is not recognizable on the milk markets in the week after Easter either. However, the weaker tendencies predominate. The milk volume trend has accordingly pushed prices down significantly, although we continue to assume that the bottom has been found and should now stabilize. However, the basic payment prices of the dairies are likely to remain under pressure.

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