05.
05.23
The milk market is waiting for momentum

Milch News, 05/05/2023

Bullish
  • good cheese demand
  • Barbecue and asparagus season
  • international competitiveness partially given
Bearish
  • Milk volume significantly above previous year
  • increase in milk yield
  • high inventories of butter and powder

There is currently little change in the amount of milk . Compared to the previous week, around 0.1 percent more raw milk was delivered in the 16th calendar week. The lead over the previous year is still 3 percent. On the raw material markets, the prices for cream and skimmed milk concentrate are falling. There is a lack of momentum on the demand side and the availability of raw materials is still plentiful. Accordingly, the sports market prices for raw milk are also significantly lower. Compared to the previous week, the federal average is 2.9 cents/kg less. At 25.2 cents/kg, the spot market listing is at the same level as in May 2020. In the Netherlands, too, sports market prices are down by up to 4.9 percent. The hoped-for impulses on the market for packaged butter did not materialize in the first week of May. The asparagus season hasn't really started yet and the cooler weather that lasted until April also pushed back the start of outdoor gastronomy a bit. Compared to the previous week, consumer prices have fallen by 4 cents to 1.45 euros for a 250 gram packet of butter. Compared to the beginning of May 2022, the consumer price has fallen by EUR 0.84.The market for block butter continues to show a wait-and-see attitude. At the end of April there were still reports of busier business, but this week demand has fallen noticeably again. Because of the increasing milk supply, bulk buyers and industry are reluctant to deliver later. The listing on the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten fell at the lower end. Prices on the EEX have also recently been weaker, but prices in the Global Dairy Trade Tender on Tuesday in New Zealand rose by 2.4%. With sufficient supply and good demand, the cheese market is stable overall. There is a need for discussion, especially for short-term deals. Gastronomy and bulk consumers order goods from the manufacturers to the usual extent, and retailers are satisfied with the goods call-offs in the direction of the food retail trade. The recently lower consumer prices have boosted consumption. Cheese production continues at a high level, but since orders are also decent, inventories are unchanged. The export runs continuously both within the European Union and beyond.In southern Europe in particular, there is great interest in deliveries from Germany. The price quotations are stable. Food-grade skimmed milk powder continues to be characterized by a calm business trend. Buying interest is increasing somewhat, but price concessions have to be made here and there. The large range of goods continues to put pressure on price developments. Deliveries within the next three months are particularly in demand. As expected, the end of Ramadan from the Arab world will bring slight demand impulses from the export channel. The price listing was able to increase somewhat in Kempten on Wednesday. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand, powder went north by 1.5 percent. With an index value of the equivalent of 2,542 euros/t, European goods continue to be internationally competitive. The average prices on the EEX increased slightly last week, but the traded volumes continued to decline. There is hardly any demand for animal feed when it comes to skimmed milk powder. At an unchanged price level, only a few new business transactions are concluded.After a revival at the end of April, the whole milk powder market also calmed down again at the turn of the month. Occasional deals are made with the European food industry. Internationally, the local goods still lack competitiveness. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender, whole milk powder went up by a clear 5%, but the domestic prices at 3,260 to 3,500 euros/t are still well above the international level of the equivalent of 2,946 euros/t. The transactions for whey powder are also manageable, but recently somewhat more quantities were traded here. Due to the higher availability of whey, there are currently enough goods available for production and trade.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The market is waiting for impulses. The beginning of the barbecue and asparagus season has not yet delivered them. The high milk volumes are a burden on the market and are causing buyers to act cautiously. Little changes in price. Easy up here, easy off there. The sideways phase seems to continue.

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