The European dairy market is still in a stabilization phase following the significant price correction in the second half of 2025. While individual submarkets are showing a slight recovery, the overall market remains burdened by high milk volumes and weak fat prices.

Price trends for the most important dairy products (EU)

Butter

• EU average: approx. € 418/100 kg (February 2026)

• Largely sideways since the start of the year with a slight recovery.

• Nevertheless, still well below the highs of previous years.

Skimmed milk powder (SMP)

• EU average: approx. € 237/100 kg

• Price trend stable to slightly firmer.

• SMP is currently showing more stability than the fat segment.

Market assessment

• Fat market remains the weakest part of the milk complex.

• The protein market is currently having a stabilizing effect on prices.

Milk commodity value (Germany)

The Kiel commodity value (butter + SMP) is currently approx:

• ≈ 30.3 ct/kg milk (4.0% fat / 3.4% protein)

Thus:

• slightly below previous month

• significantly below the highs of 2022/23

• but slowly stabilizing after the sharp decline at the end of 2025

Milk supply

Germany

• Milk deliveries still well above previous year.

• Recent growth around +6% compared to the same week last year.

EU

• Production growth continues, also globally.

• More raw milk is increasingly processed into butter and milk powder.

4️⃣ Milk producer prices (Germany)

Dairy farm-gate prices are still on a downward trend:

• December 2025: ≈ 43.45 ct/kg

• Further declines reported at the beginning of 2026.

This means that the farm-gate price is

• well below the level of 2024

• only just above the production costs of many farms.

Futures market - EEX

Current settlement prices for February 2026:

• Butter futures: approx. 4,156 €/t

• SMP futures: approx. 2,360 €/t

• Liquid milk futures: approx. 43.45 €/100 kg

Market assessment

• Futures reflect a sideways expectation.

• Futures market does not signal a rapid price recovery, but also no further sharp fall in prices.

Market development - Germany compared to the EU

Germany currently has a relatively weaker market structure than some EU regions:

Factors:

• above-average volume growth

• high proportion of standard industrial products (butter/SMP)

• strong dependence on exports.

As a result, the German market is particularly sensitive to price declines in the fat segment.