01.
06.23
Milk peak reached - delivery quantities stable

Milch News, 06/01/2023

Bullish
  • Asparagus and strawberry season
  • Beginning of vacation time - start of outdoor gastronomy
  • Expectation of falling milk yield
  • Increased consumer demand
Bearish
  • Delivery quantities above previous year's level
  • Asking price buyer/seller
  • reduced competitiveness
  • Warehouse still full
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
05/31/2023 €2,445 €2,440 €2,430 €2,438 €11
05/24/2023 €2,430 2.€400 €2,450 €2,427 €40
05/17/2023 €2,390 €2,400 €2,370 €2,387 €19
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
05/312023 €4,650 €4,730 €4,880 €4,753 €101
05/24/2023 €4,625 €4,680 €4,650 €4,652 -3€
05/17/2023 €4,535 €4,650 €4,780 4.€655 -€8
liquid milk cents/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
05/12/2023 49.76 50.50 53.32 47.68 50.32 -5.13
04/12/2023 54.07 56.00 57.36 54.38 55.45 -6.20

The raw milk delivery was stable in the past week compared to the previous week's level and thus confirms the expectation that the milk peak has been reached. Around 1.5% more milk was delivered compared to the quantities from the same period of the previous year, so that the total quantity was exceeded by 2.8%. Firmer price trends prevailed again on the raw materials markets. Above all, the expectation that the milk volume will decrease again in the coming weeks is currently supporting the market development. The ife Institute determined a price of 31.8 cents per kilogram on the spot market. This corresponds to an increase of 2.3 cents compared to the previous week. The course was similar in the Netherlands and prices became firmer. The price increased by around 11% here. The asparagus season had a positive impact on consumer demand in the molded butter market, and orders from food retailers were at a satisfactory level. Even if some traders had hoped for even more for the past week. Additional impetus came from the start of the holiday season, where there was more demand for gastronomy in particular.The price level continued to assert itself at a level of 1.45 euros for the 250 gram pack. On the stock exchange in Kempten, the range fell by a total of 0.06 cents/kg. The block butter market could not carry its revival into the new week. Buyers are waiting on the market and hoping for falling prices. The recently firmer prices on the cream side caused difficulties in the negotiations. Buyers and sellers did not always fit together and no deals were made. 50 contracts were traded on the Leipzig Stock Exchange last week. Trading has thus gained momentum slightly, as only 30 contracts were traded in the previous week. On average, the contracts were traded at a price of 5,006 euros/ton. Extensive goods were traded and sold on the market for semi-hard cheese . Goods were ordered at a comparatively high level, especially in food retail. The most recent price reductions for semi-hard cheese ensured constant and increasing demand from private consumers. In view of the anticipated decrease in milk volumes, many buyers have tried to cover their needs as far as possible.In the catering sector, too, there was an increasing demand due to the revival of outdoor catering. The export business also went much better again. The holiday season is gradually starting and means that southern Europe and third countries are increasingly ordering goods. On the powder markets, the course of business before the holidays is described as slightly lively. After the holidays, food grade skimmed milk powder deals were slightly lower. Many buyers had already stocked up on enough goods before the long weekend and called off their contract goods. The focus of the new negotiations is currently on deliveries towards the third and fourth quarters. However, the deals often failed because the price expectations differed too much. Buyers had to accept discounts, especially for short-term deliveries, so that the price level was also able to remain stable. Trade in feed-grade skimmed milk powder was rather sluggish, which is mainly due to the increased costs. In the case of whole milk powder, orders from abroad in particular have decreased.The domestic goods proved to be only slightly competitive in a global comparison and buyers from the Asian region were looking for alternative purchasing options.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Overall, demand on the milk market has developed somewhat more dynamically in the past few days. The asparagus and strawberry season, as well as the start of outdoor catering, have ensured a lively demand, so that the prices were stable or slightly higher. However, price pressure arises due to the currently limited international competitiveness.

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