20.
07.23
Lots of goods, little interest

Milch News, 07/20/2023

Bullish
  • seasonal trend milk delivery
  • reduced herd in Germany
  • low stocks of cheese - good demand
Bearish
  • Milk volume significantly above previous year
  • Euro is getting stronger
  • high inventories of butter and powder
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
07/192023 €2,380 €2,180 €2,410 €2,323 -32 €
07/12/2023 €2,405 €2,210 €2,450 €2,355 -€57
05.07.2023 €2,455 2.€330 €2,450 2.€412 -€53
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
07/192023 €4,450 €4,390 €4,770 €4,537 -€68
07/12/2023 €4,525 €4,520 €4,770 €4,605 -€53
05.07.2023 €4,575 4.€620 €4,780 4.658 € -52 €
        Flüssigmilch       ct/kg
Veröffentlichung Deutschland Niederlande Dänemark Irland Index Änderung
12.07.2023 46.54 43.25 43.76 40.79 43.59 -1.48
06/12/2023 46.54 44.75 47.24 41.76 45.07 -5.25

According to provisional calculations, more milk was served in week 27 than in the previous weeks. We also exceeded the same week last year by 2.3 percent. In the first 27 calendar weeks, the dairies had around 2.6 percent more milk available than in the same period of 2022. Weaker price trends are evident on the raw materials markets. In particular, the weak demand for butter is also noticeable in the industrial cream trade. The quiet market situation for skimmed milk powder is also putting pressure on the prices for skimmed milk concentrate. Spot market milk is quoted by the ife institute at 37.6 cents/kg, which is 1.2 cents less than last week. The call-offs of formed butter from the food retail trade are seasonally typical at a lower quantitative level. The summer holidays in now eleven federal states are clearly noticeable here. The dealers do not expect any significant changes in the coming weeks. At EUR 1.45 for a 250-gram pack, consumer prices remain stable. Block butter also continues to trade very quietly.The inventories are more than sufficient, which is why there is occasional supply pressure and significant quantities are sold at lower prices. The listings in Kempten dropped accordingly yesterday. More favorable price quotations for the various dates can also be seen on the EEX and butter prices also had to fall at the Global DairyTrade Tender in New Zealand on Tuesday. Butter lost 2.3% here and is now quoted at USD 4,705 ton or EUR 4,185/t. The quotations for cheese remain unchanged yesterday after the slight increase in the last week. In contrast to formed butter, the demand reported by the food retail trade is still lively. Unlike in the previous year, a summer slump is not noticeable here. Overall, the manufacturers are satisfied with the orders from the sales channels of industry and bulk consumers. Despite high production, inventories continue to decrease due to good demand and are below average for this time of year. Cheddar lost 10.1% at Tuesday's auction in New Zealand, three times in a row. A cautious buying interest in skimmed milk powder continues to put the market under pressure.Prices fell at the lower end of the trading range yesterday on the southern German butter and cheese exchange. The development on the EEX is different, here the contracts recently increased marginally or moved sideways. The availability of goods is decent, but neither domestic demand nor export transactions ensure a revival of the market as a whole. In addition, the price of skimmed milk powder fell by 0.6% in the Global Dairy Trade Tender, which means that, in addition to the strong euro, the international competitiveness of European exporters is more limited. Whole milk powder is inconsistent in the price reports, the quotation range was adjusted downwards by 30 euros/t at the lower end yesterday and is now 3,390 – 3,570 euros/t. Similar to skimmed milk powder, there is currently little demand due to the holidays and is limited to the inner-European economic area. Whey powder is also under pressure in terms of price, the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten also reduced the quotation range here. Goods are sufficiently available. On the EEX, the prices have developed somewhat weaker with significantly more trading activity.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The summer hole is also shaping the milk market this week. The prices are not only under pressure because of the lower demand. The amount of milk is significantly higher than in the previous year, so dairies were able to produce more butter and powder again. With the exception of cheese, the availability of goods is significantly higher than demand.

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