27.
07.23
Summer slump on the milk market

Milch News, 07/27/2023

Bullish
  • Delivery quantities fall at this time, as is usual with the season
  • reduced herd in Germany
  • Constant demand
Bearish
  • Price pressure on the powder markets
  • International competition
  • Summer heat in holiday destinations depresses export business
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
07/26/2023 €2,300 2.€200 €2,480 €2,327 €4
07/19/2023 €2,380 €2,180 €2,410 €2,323 -32 €
07/12/2023 €2,405 €2,210 €2,450 2.€355 -€53
butter €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
2607.2023 €4,300 €4,350 €4,840 €4,497 -40€
07/19/2023 €4,450 €4,390 €4,770 €4,537 -€68
07/12/2023 €4,525 4.€520 €4,770 4.€605 -€52
liquid milk cents/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
12.07.2023 46.54 43.25 43.76 40.79 43.59 -1.48
06/12/2023 46.54 44.75 47.24 41.76 45.07 -5.25

As expected, less milk was delivered in the past calendar week 28 than in the week before. After milk volumes had increased in the past week, contrary to the usual seasonal development, the decline seems to be continuing again. Compared to the previous week, the difference was still -1%. On an annual basis, the delivery quantity is still above the reference week of the previous year (+2.5%). Overall, the milk market remains calm. The holidays, which have now begun in all federal states, are showing their mark. Little demand from private consumers means that buyers are acting cautiously. A price of 36.3 cents per kilogram was quoted for week 29 on the spot market. That is 1.3 cents less than in the previous week. The calls for molded butter are unchanged at a calm level. Compared to the previous week, the food retail trade has requested fewer goods and is thus reacting to the vacation and holiday season. Nevertheless, trading is in the usual seasonal pattern and the price structure is stable. In Kempten, the quotation for formed butter was continued unchanged at 4.80 - 4.96 EUR/kg.This means that consumers have to pay 1.45 euros for the 250 gram packet of butter. In the previous year, the price was 2.32 euros. The block butter also lacks momentum. Here and there new negotiations were reported, but only a few deals were concluded due to different price expectations. The quiet vacation time is also reflected here and larger impulses are only expected towards the end of the summer slump. Nevertheless, prices on the Leipzig stock exchange rose slightly. On average, a ton was traded at 4,617 euros. At 418 contracts, the trading volume was slightly above the level of the previous week. Compared to the cash market, stock market prices are slightly weaker. Orders from food retailers for semi-hard cheese are at a normal level. Supply and demand are balanced, so that prices have also stabilized at the previous week's level. Industry was a little more willing to buy, even if only at a level that is typical for the season. Exports to the south have recently declined slightly, which is mainly due to the very high temperatures in the holiday countries.The availability of raw materials was sufficient for the manufacturers, so that the refrigerated warehouses are well stocked. Overall, a calm but steady course is expected for the coming week. There are reports of price pressure on the powder markets . As in the other sub-markets, buyers on the powder market for food-grade skimmed milk powder were only slightly active. At the same time, the range of goods has continued to increase in recent weeks and some manufacturers are having problems clearing their warehouses again. This causes prices to fall. A few deals were confirmed for the last quarter of the year. Short-term deliveries hardly took place. On the EEX in Leipzig, the early dates for skimmed milk powder increased slightly (on average plus 10 euros). Sales, on the other hand, were weaker. 375 contracts with a volume of 1,875 tons were traded. There are also few changes to the SMP in animal feed quality, so the listing here has been corrected downwards by 10 euros.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Another week without fundamental news is coming to an end in the milk market. The situation has hardly changed compared to the previous week. The buyers are waiting, although goods are constantly being called up, the offers are large enough at the same time. There is talk of price pressure, especially on the powder markets. It remains to be seen whether the falling delivery volumes will be able to compensate for this.

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