Raw milk / producer prices
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According to the EU Milk Market Observatory, the spot price for raw milk remains at the center of market transparency. The price level is stable, but there are increasing indications of a slight drop.
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CLAL statistics indicate a weighted EU average price ("farm-gate milk price") of €54.53/100 kg for September 2025 (provisional values).
➞ Although this is still high compared to the previous year, the momentum is slowing noticeably.Outlook:
Payout prices remain at a stable level, which should satisfy producers. However: The downstream market segments are coming under increasing pressure - the risk of a price adjustment for raw milk from November/December onwards is increasing.
Butter & fat products -
The European butter price has shown a clear downward trend since September.
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In CLAL data for the "Western Europe - International Market" area, a butter price range of € 5,526 - 6,725/t was reported on September 26, 2025.
➞ This corresponds to a decline of around -6.01% compared to the previous period.The Vesper Butter Price Index for the EU fell to € 6,700/t (EXW basis) in September.
According to international industry services (e.g. Oils & Fats International), the global butter market is "set for downturn".
There is talk of a surplus of around 56,500 tons of butter compared to the first half of 2024.
Outlook:
The market for butter has clearly passed its peak. The downward momentum is structural (seasonal production, inventory build-up, export gaps). A countermovement is not in sight in the short term.
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Cheese / milk fat utilization
- No reliable EU spot prices for cheese (e.g. Cheddar) available this week.
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However, market comments point to a declining price trend for cheese parallel to the fat market.
➞ "European dairy prices plateau ... differentiated behavior in prices of milk and its derivatives" -
Cheese stocks in the EU increased noticeably in Q2 2025.
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Reason: Decline in export demand, mainly due to fewer cheese exports to the UK and Asia.
Outlook:
Cheese was a stabilizing factor for a long time, but rising stocks and weakening exports are putting pressure on prices. Dairies with a high cheese quota could come under increasing pressure on margins.
Futures, indices & market expectations -
The EEX Butter Index recently stood at ≈ 6,357 €/t.
Butter futures for Q1/2026 were last traded below €5,700/t - according to the MilkValue Portal.
➞ Market participants are already pricing in falling prices.
SMP futures are also showing weakness - probably in response to the declines in fat products.
Outlook:
The futures markets are clearly pointing towards further price declines - for both butter and SMP. The expectation is that the price slide will continue.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
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The farm-gate price shows that producer prices remain relatively high - a positive foundation.
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At the same time, the sharp decline in butter (spot market) and the lower futures indicate increased price pressure for milk fat and processed products.
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The robust payout in the raw milk segment could be jeopardized by shifts in supply and demand: If processing prices fall, this could feed through.
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The decline in futures prices signals that market participants are increasingly expecting prices to fall further - a warning signal for the near future.
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