10.
11.22
Milk volume at seasonal low?

Milch News, 11/10/2022

Bullish
  • Milk volume below previous year
  • international milk volume development
  • young ripening stocks of cheese
Bearish
  • Delivery pressure of skimmed milk powder
  • Reluctance to buy powder and block butter
  • Consumers worried about inflation
  • lack of international competitiveness
Education price index skimmed milk powder €/t
Germany Netherlands France index modification
11/09/2022 €3,150 3.000 € €2,980 €3,043 -197 €
11/02/2022 €3,240 €3,150 €3,330 €3,240 -€237
10/26/202 €3,500 €3,300 €3,630 3.€477 -€151
butter €/t
Germany Netherlands France index modification
09.11.2022 €6,125 €5,900 €6,830 €6,285 -€217
11/02/2022 €6,525 €6,150 €6,830 €6,502 -€238
10/26/202 €6,675 6.€400 €7,145 6.€740 -311 €
liquid milk cents/kg
Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index modification
12.10.2022 56:19 60.00 58.88 59.73 58.70 1:21
09/12/2022 54.40 60.00 57.78 57.78 57.49 2.69

By the end of October, the amount of milk collected had increased slightly. This indicates that the milk volume may have reached its seasonal low. The deficit compared to the previous year has decreased slightly with the latest provisional figures; currently, around 0.7 percent of raw milk is missing compared to the same period last year. The protein side is stabilizing on the concentrate markets, although there are high trading margins for skimmed milk concentrate and more favorable offers are being received by customers from the European environment. At the end of last week, there was a somewhat greater demand for cream again, but prices fell. Spotmark milk is repeatedly weaker and the national average is quoted at 55.2 cents/kg (-0.2 cents). Spot market milk has also become cheaper again in the Netherlands and Italy. There are few changes in butter. Formed butter continues to be in high demand from the food retail trade, and last week's public holidays did not slow down the quantities. Market observers expect demand to pick up again in the coming weeks. Overall, however, the molded butter orders are slightly below the level of the previous year.Dairy sales prices were slightly increased when they were quoted in Kempten yesterday, although some dairies are reporting reduced prices in the negotiations. The food retail prices for the 250-gram packet of German branded butter are unchanged at EUR 2.29. It remains quiet on the block butter market. Traders continue to act cautiously and only make short-term deals in the expectation that prices will continue to fall. Long-term supply contracts are only made occasionally. As a result, block butter prices also fell this week. The trading range was set at EUR 6.00 to EUR 6.25 per kilogram and was thus reduced by 40 cents at both the upper and lower end. The price expectations on the EEX have recently improved. With the transactions made yesterday on the EEX, the prices for the first half of 2023 rose. The quotation for Gouda Blockware in Hanover was lowered yesterday by 5 cents. Bread products, on the other hand, were able to remain stable at the previous level. Overall demand continues to be described as good. In the food retail sales channel, call-offs and demand are still at a high level and the outgoing goods are quite extensive.There is still no sign of a decline in consumer demand. Large consumers and outdoor catering businesses, on the other hand, called off fewer goods. The food industry is increasingly hesitant about new inquiries, but calls on existing contracts to the agreed extent. The ripe stocks are seasonal, but relatively young. The butter and cheese exchange in Kempten was once again significantly weaker yesterday when it came to food-grade skimmed milk powder. Demand remains impetus. The factories certainly receive inquiries, but new business is still limited. Below-average sales are also evident in exports. Here, European goods are still unattractive despite the recent sharp fall in prices. There is currently something like selling pressure on the part of the manufacturers, while the buyers continue to be cautious and primarily cover their short-term needs. Powder prices on the EEX were slightly more stable than in our report from last week on Thursday. Feed grades are still traded only occasionally, after the significant price declines of the last week, the listings have now stabilized again.Quiet tendencies continue to exist for whole milk powder and whey powder. The latter is traded here and there and was recently priced slightly weaker, although traders are reporting inconsistent price trends.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Butter and powder have stabilized again on the stock exchange. However, the indices for butter and skimmed milk powder also fell again this week, as did the spot market prices. It is not yet possible to say whether the correction on the milk market is over. The milk volume is likely to remain the decisive factor for the price structure, but the uncertainty about the development of demand is holding back the market.

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