Short-term development
The first signs of stabilization can be seen in a weekly comparison:
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Butter and powder prices are moving sideways to slightly firmer.
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International auction results and trading impulses are moderately supporting market sentiment.
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The downward price momentum has slowed considerably, indicating a possible bottoming out.
This continues to be offset by negative factors:
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The absolute price level remains below the previous year.
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Producer prices in many EU countries remain at a depressed level in the low to mid 40 ct/kg range.
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Milk deliveries remain above the previous year's level, limiting price increases.
In the short term, the picture remains one of
stabilization without a clear trend reversal.
Medium-term outlook
The further development depends largely on two factors:
1. supply side
As long as milk production in the EU remains high, the market is likely to react only to a limited extent.
A sustainable price recovery requires
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falling milk deliveries
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structural production adjustments
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declines in supply due to weather or costs
2. global demand
The global market continues to show mixed signals:
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On the one hand, there is still a structural milk surplus that is capping prices.
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On the other hand, international trade impulses and auctions are increasingly stabilizing the price level.
A real turnaround would be possible above all if
be expected if export demand picks up significantly.
Structural assessment
The economic situation for milk production remains tense:
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The commodity value of milk remains at a low level.
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On many farms, revenues are close to production costs.
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This means that the sector remains sensitive to new price weaknesses.
Long-term projections see moderate price increases in the EU milk market again,
but cyclical negative factors continue to dominate in the short term.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
In mid-February, the European dairy market continued to show signs of cautious stabilization while structural price pressure persisted.
Following the significant declines since autumn 2025, prices in several product segments have recently stabilized, but without initiating a sustained upward trend. The European dairy market is more stable than in January, but still lacks any sustainable upward momentum. The market situation remains clearly bearish.
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