Current EU price data (MMO dashboard)
According to the European Milk Market Observatory (update Jan. 21, 2026), the EU average prices for the week ending 18.01.2026 are as follows
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Butter: approx. 429 €/100 kg (+0.5% vs. previous week)
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SMP: approx. €208/100 kg (+0.5%)
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WMP: approx. 305 €/100 kg (+0.6 %)
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Cheddar: approx. 373 €/100 kg (stable)
These price movements are mixed: slight recovery impulses for some products, but still at a historically low level.
Milk supply & raw material value (Germany)
Milk supply in Germany at the beginning of 2026 significantly higher than in the previous year (up approx. 5.9% in week 1) - creating higher supply pressure. At the same time, the Kiel commodity value of milk fell to 30.8 ct/kg in December 2025, the lowest level since 2020.
Cost and price situation according to the Milk Marker Index
The Milk Marker Index (MMI) shows that in October 2025, production costs (~53.73 ct/kg) were higher than farm-gate prices (~49.94 ct/kg), which means a shortfall - i.e. structural economic risk for producers.
Global trade & GDT development
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The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions at the end of January 2026 saw an upward price movement (+1.5 %), driven by butter, WMP and SMP.
This positive GDT rally signals renewed demand momentum at global market level in the short term.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Week 4/2026 shows a dairy market that is picking up slight positive momentum (especially with GDT rally and some EU average prices), but at the same time is being pushed by continued supply strength, low commodity value and structural shortages:
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Short term: slight recovery trends in global trade (GDT) and more stable powder segments.
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Medium-term: Supply pressure and low raw material values weigh on producer prices.
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Producer-friendly: Recovery in powder prices and seasonal demand stimuli could provide medium-term support.
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Risk: Persistently high milk supply and shortfall in production costs remain critical factors.
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