Market assessment - European dairy market

The European dairy market is still in a phase of lateral stabilization after a significant correction in autumn/winter 2025. While a cautious bottoming out can be seen at EU level, the German market is structurally under greater pressure - especially in the spot segment and in terms of raw material value.

1️⃣ Overall European situation

• Butter: sideways to slightly weaker at a reduced level

• SMP/WMP: relatively stable, slightly firmer in some cases

• Cheddar: no clear momentum

• EU milk supply: still above previous year

German milk market

a) Spot milk market

The German spot market remains the clearest stress signal:

• North/West: still below 20 ct/kg

• Southern Germany: slightly higher, but also weak

The spot market is signaling

• oversupply of raw milk

• weak short-term utilization

• lack of margins in the fat segment

b) Cash prices (dairies)

Conventional producer prices remain in the range of

• approx. 40-44 ct/kg, varying from region to region

Compared to fall 2025, this means

• significant decline

• Stabilization on a lower plateau

In several regions, the farm-gate price is only just above the full cost line, which puts pressure on the liquidity of many farms.

c) Milk commodity value (Germany)

The commodity value calculated from butter and SMP prices remains

• close to 30 ct/kg

• well below the 2022/23 highs

d) Milk supply in Germany

The milk supply continues to be

• above the previous year

• albeit with a slight slowdown in growth momentum

Germany is therefore currently acting as a supply booster in the EU context

As long as volume growth does not decline noticeably, price pressure will remain.