Butter
The price of butter has been on a stable upward trend for several months and is currently quoted at around EUR 739/100 kg. The price trend is mainly due to solid demand at home and abroad, particularly in the food retail sector and export markets. At the same time, supply is limited due to seasonal fluctuations in milk production. In addition, higher production costs - particularly for energy and packaging - are driving up prices. Market participants are reporting a good sales situation with stable contract volumes. Stockpiling is also rather restrained at present, which is also supporting the price level.
Skimmed milk powder (SMP)
Prices for skimmed milk powder are currently moving sideways with slight fluctuations in the region of around EUR 240/100 kg. The market is largely characterized by a balanced supply and demand situation. On the one hand, there is stable demand from the export business - particularly to Asia and the Middle East. On the other hand, domestic production is constant due to the relatively normal seasonal availability of milk. Upward swings are limited by the persistently high global supply, while lower prices are cushioned by more stable feed costs and increased processing costs. Interventions at EU level do not currently play a role.
Whole milk powder (WMP)
The price of whole milk powder is on a continuous upward trend and has recently reached a high of around EUR 437/100 kg. This increase is being driven by an upturn in international demand, particularly from regions with growing processing requirements in the bakery and confectionery sector. In contrast to skimmed milk powder, the production of whole milk powder is also more energy-intensive due to the complete utilization of the milk content, which has a price-supporting effect in view of high energy costs. At the same time, some manufacturers have slightly reduced production, which is tightening supply. Market sentiment is positive, with a view to stable to slightly rising prices.
Cheese (Gouda 48%)
Cheese prices - especially for standard products such as Gouda 48% fat in dry matter - are showing a moderate upward trend. Prices are currently around EUR 448/100 kg. This is due to robust demand on the domestic market as well as from Italy, Spain and Eastern Europe. Promotional activities are also underway in the food retail sector, which is stimulating sales. At the same time, supply is slightly limited, as many dairies are prioritizing the production of skimmed milk powder or butter due to the scarce availability of milk. Stocks are limited, which provides additional impetus for the price level. Many market participants remain cautiously optimistic about price expectations.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Stable to declining milk supply in the EU (e.g. weather-related losses or structural declines) → Lower supply of raw materials
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Increasingexport demand from third countries, especially MENA & Asia (India, China, Egypt)
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Low stock levels (especially in NL, DE, FR) - physically available quantities scarce
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Retail promotions and processing: industrial demand, e.g. for baked goods, increases seasonally in Q3
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Inflationary pressure on consumers → Savings behavior in the retail sector
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