Milk News, 05.12.0004

The downward trend in milk deliveries continued at the end of November, and it does not appear to have come to an end yet. According to the ZMB, the volume delivered in calendar week 47 fell by 0.1% compared to the previous week. Compared to the previous year, 0.4% less milk has been delivered to dairies since the beginning of the year. The price on the spot market was unable to hold up and fell by 1.3 cents to 58.2 Ct/kg. Spot prices in the Netherlands also fell by 4.8%.

At the beginning of December, the market for semi-hard cheese was characterized by high demand, primarily due to the Christmas business. Food retailers ordered large quantities and the food service and industrial sectors also drew heavily on their contracts. Exports were stable, both within the EU, particularly to southern Europe, and outside, boosted by the favorable exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar. However, supply remained limited as production was unable to keep up with demand during the weaker milk supply season. Stocks in the ripening warehouses were low and additional requests could often not be met. This shortage is likely to continue until the end of the year, before demand generally decreases seasonally after the holidays and stocks can be built up. Prices on the cheese market remained stable at the beginning of December. In Hanover, prices stood at EUR 4.65-4.75/kg for block goods and EUR 4.95-5.15/kg for bread goods.

Demand for packaged butter remained high in the last two weeks, driven by the Christmas business. Sales in food retail increased compared to the previous week, but remained below the previous year's level. Supply was tight and is not expected to change until the holidays. Prices were stable. At the South German Butter and Cheese Exchange in Kempten, prices for molded butter remained between 8.50 and 8.80 EUR/kg. A 250-gram packet of German brand butter cost EUR 2.39, which is 80 cents more than in the previous year. The block butter market was quiet at the beginning of the month, as only a few short-term orders were received. Market participants held back due to uncertainties regarding price trends and availability. Production remained limited due to low milk deliveries and high raw material prices, with prices remaining stable at between EUR 8.10 and 8.20/kg. On the global market, the butter price on the GlobalDairyTrade tender fell by 5.2% to EUR 6,357/t, making exports outside the EU more difficult. Trading activity increased on the EEX in Leipzig, but prices on the futures markets fell. The average price for deliveries up to August 2025 was EUR 6,857/t, below current market prices.

The market for skimmed milk powder was somewhat calmer again at the beginning of December. Demand is still expected to fall in the coming weeks of December, as it traditionally declines due to the Christmas holidays. Buyers have concluded their annual transactions and are now primarily interested in deliveries for the coming year. Third countries are also showing interest, with European suppliers competing with international suppliers. However, pricing is sometimes difficult as buyers and sellers are unable to reach an agreement. Following the price increases in November, prices for food-grade skimmed milk powder stabilized between EUR 2,600 and EUR 2,700/t on 4 December 2024. Expectations rose slightly on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig. The average price for the dates from December 2024 to August 2025 was EUR 2,782/t. At the end of November, the volume of skimmed milk powder futures trading was lower. A similar trading picture is also emerging for the other powders. Trading in whole milk powder in particular is no longer expected to be stronger before the holidays.