08.
11.24
Seasonal shortages and high demand drive prices on the dairy market

Milk News, 08.11.2024

Bullish
  • Stable demand for cheese and fresh products, including exports to Southern Europe.
  • Short supply of raw milk keeps prices high.
  • Rising world market prices for milk powder and butter strengthen export opportunities.
Bearish
  • Subdued demand for milk powder, especially in the animal feed sector.
  • High prices dampen competitiveness of German butter and whole milk powder for export.
  • Weak block butter market due to wait-and-see buying behavior.

The decline in milk deliveries in Germany continued at the beginning of November, which had a noticeable impact on the market. The seasonal shortage of raw materials led to stable high prices, with market participants acting cautiously and focusing mainly on contracted volumes. The price trend on the spot market was mixed. The ife Institute in Kiel reported a slight fall in the German raw milk price to 60.8 cents per kilogram in the 44th calendar week, while prices rose in neighboring countries such as the Netherlands and northern Italy. Demand from food retailers remained high on the butter market, and the upcoming Christmas season created additional demand. Molded butter traded at stable prices of EUR 8.50 to 8.80 per kilogram on the South German Butter and Cheese Exchange in Kempten. German branded butter continued to retail at EUR 2.39 per 250 gram pack, which represents a significant increase compared to the previous year. Trading in block butter, on the other hand, remained subdued, with new contracts mainly focused on the coming year. Futures trading for butter was brisk on the EEX in Leipzig; the average price for November to July 2025 rose by EUR 215 to EUR 7,270 per tonne. The cheese market remained characterized by tight supply, with stocks remaining low. High demand from the food industry and the bulk consumer sector meant that many types of cheese left the warehouses young. Exports to southern Europe, particularly Italy and Greece, were stable, while third country transactions were less frequent due to the high price level in Germany. Prices for block goods remained stable at EUR 4.60 to 4.75 per kilogram in the 45th calendar week, while prices for bread goods increased slightly to EUR 4.80 to 5.05 per kilogram. There were also slight price movements on the milk powder market. Demand for food-grade skimmed milk powder increased marginally, supported by short-term contracts and stronger demand from abroad. On the butter and cheese exchange in Kempten, the price for skimmed milk powder was EUR 2,480 to 2,580 per tonne in the reporting week, around EUR 30 higher than in the previous week. On the global market, prices on the GlobalDairyTrade tender rose by 4% and reached EUR 2,615 per tonne. The market for feed-grade skimmed milk powder, on the other hand, was calm and prices on the Kempten exchange remained stable at between EUR 2,330 and EUR 2,370 per tonne. The market for whole milk powder also remained calm, with demand focused on the domestic market and prices falling slightly compared to the previous week. On the Kempten exchange, whole milk powder was quoted at between EUR 4,280 and EUR 4,370 per tonne. The market for whey powder showed largely stable price trends at the beginning of November. Food-grade whey powder remained unchanged in Kempten at between EUR 1,000 and EUR 1,080 per tonne, while futures prices fell slightly on the EEX in Leipzig, although no new contracts were concluded.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Due to the seasonal shortage of raw materials and high demand, prices for dairy products remain at a high level. Stocks are particularly scarce in the cheese and butter segment, which could put further pressure on the markets. The Christmas business could create additional demand, so no easing is expected.

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