10.
05.24
Milk volume increase paused

Milk News, 10th / May / 2024

Bullish
  • Impulses from the asparagus and ice age
  • Good consumer demand for cheese and molded butter
  • International competitiveness mostly given
  • Low stocks of cheese
Bearish
  • Lack of demand from China
  • Seasonal milk volume development
Education Price index Skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France Index Amendment
08.05.2024 2.365 € 2.370 € 2.390 € 2.375 € 3 €
02.05.2024 2.355 € 2.370 € 2.390 € 2.372 € -1 €
24.04.2024 2.375 € 2.340 € 2.405 € 2.373 € 0 €
butter €/t
Publication Germany Netherlands France Index Amendment
08.05.2024 5.910 € 5.890 € 5.835 € 5.878 € 35 €
02.05.2024 5.850 € 5.870 € 5.810 € 5.843 € -19 €
24.04.2024 5.815 € 5.850 € 5.920 € 5.862 € 112 €
Liquid milk ct/kg
Publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index Change to
12.04.2024 45,75 46,00 45,21 44,67 45,41 -0,73
12.03.2024 45,84 46,31 45,19 47,2 46,14 1,40

Milk volumes have not increased any further recently and are even declining slightly. Overall, however, the shortfall in volume for the first 17 calendar weeks of 2024 compared to the same period last year has decreased significantly and now amounts to 0.2%. After significant markdowns on the concentrate markets last week, stable trends are emerging in the current week. In the case of cream, there has been some impetus from the outdoor catering and ice cream café sectors. In the case of skimmed milk concentrate, traders are seeing slightly better demand from the European market. Spot market milk rose by 3.1 cents/kg to 32.3 cents/kg.

Calls for molded butter remain at a high level. The price in Kempten was raised at the beginning of the month, but remained unchanged at this level on Wednesday. Stockpiling for the holidays and initial impetus from the barbecue and asparagus season are making themselves felt in the market. Demand for block butter has picked up somewhat compared to previous weeks. Nevertheless, business activities are described as quiet overall. Prices rose slightly last week and are stable this week. Talks are currently taking place primarily for later delivery dates, while short-term deals and deliveries are mostly limited to the European domestic market.

The cheese market is also characterized by high production and high demand at the beginning of May. Food retailers in particular are calling up large quantities of goods. Promotions in supermarkets ensure high sales. There is also demand and call-off orders from third countries and southern European vacation regions. Maturing stocks have hardly changed and are at a low and below-average level. Price quotations remained unchanged again this week.

The powder markets are also quiet this week. Many traders are only active to a limited extent due to Ascension Day. Nevertheless, deals are being concluded, even if the domestic market in particular is still acting cautiously. The end of Ramadan has still not provided any impetus and there has also been little interest in European goods from China. On the EEX, prices for skimmed milk powder fell slightly over the week, with prices in Kempten rising by EUR 20 per tonne at the lower end on Wednesday. At the Global Dairy Trade Tender in New Zealand, SMP was able to increase slightly; at a converted price of EUR 2,367 per tonne, domestic goods remain competitive on the world market. The price of whole milk powder was raised, particularly at the lower end. However, business activities have calmed down again somewhat. Due to the high cheese production, however, there is hardly any whole milk powder available, so there is no supply pressure. Demand for food-grade whey powder remains high, with increased business being conducted for the second half of the year in particular. The price was raised by EUR 20 at the lower end of the trading range to EUR 950 - 990/t.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market is off to a stable start in May. The outlook is stable to firm.

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