Milk News, 13.02.2025

The seasonal increase in delivery volumes continued at the beginning of February. The ZMB confirms that dairies received 0.7% more raw milk in the fifth calendar week than in the previous week. Nevertheless, the volume was still 1.9% below the previous year's level. Since the beginning of the year, total deliveries have been 1.8% down on the previous year. German prices rose again on the spot market. The ife Institute in Kiel quoted 48.8 cents/kg, an increase of 0.2 cents on the previous week. However, the situation was different in the Netherlands and Italy. Here, prices had to cope with a further fall. At the beginning of February, dairy selling prices for molded butter fell slightly as the focus was on new contracts. However, the first price adjustment in over three months had little impact on customers' ordering behavior. As a rule, there is a significant reduction in order volumes shortly before expected price falls in order to stock up at a more favorable price, but sales remained largely unchanged. Overall, orders for molded butter were at a slightly higher, seasonally normal level in the middle of the month. In Kempten, prices were also slightly weaker: the price range was reduced to EUR 8.20 to 8.60/kg, which was 30 cents less at the lower end and 20 cents less at the upper end compared to the previous week. There were also adjustments in the food retail trade (LEH). For example, the price for a 250 gram pack of German brand butter in many discount stores has been EUR 2.19 since the beginning of February - 20 cents less than before, but 50 cents more than a year ago. Activity on the block butter market increased in mid-February, although there was still a certain reluctance to conclude contracts. Producers were able to record inquiries for short-term requirements in particular. At the same time, declining cream availability and below-average milk deliveries meant that there was not too much supply. Due to the lower prices abroad, business with third countries was rather low. The limited supply barely kept pace with demand. Low stock levels and restrained production resulted in early deliveries. As raw materials are increasingly flowing into more lucrative areas, prices are likely to rise. Negotiations recently failed due to excessive differences in price expectations. Cheese is and remains in high demand, especially in food retail. Here, stores were extremely satisfied with sales. Consumers were busy buying cheese. The industry was quick to call off contract quantities, and the bulk consumer sector also ordered diligently, albeit more in line with the season. Exports were almost at the same level as before the outbreak of FMD. Although persistent import restrictions imposed by some trading partners caused a backlog of goods, manufacturers were satisfied with business overall, particularly in view of the more difficult conditions. In addition, a further normalization is expected in the coming weeks. The limited supply barely kept pace with demand. Low stock levels and restrained production resulted in early deliveries. As raw materials are increasingly flowing into more lucrative areas, prices are likely to rise. Negotiations recently failed due to excessive differences in price expectations. There has been no uniform direction on the powder markets in recent days - the market has been described as calm in some cases and slightly buoyant in others. The easing of the foot-and-mouth epidemic in particular is likely to have contributed to the recovery, and many transactions are taking place again. While exports initially faltered, the focus is now shifting back to day-to-day business. Bilateral agreements have been concluded with many buyer countries, although some negotiations are still ongoing. The clarified trade conditions have increased interest in buying German goods, both in the EU internal market and in third countries. European suppliers are benefiting from competitive prices and a weak euro against the US dollar. In addition, an upcoming tender in North Africa could further boost demand. While this has already been reflected in rising prices for skimmed milk concentrate, the market for dried goods remained stable overall.