Milk deliveries continued to fall in the last week of August compared to the previous week. According to calculations by the ZMB (Central Milk Market Reporting), 0.3% less milk was delivered. In the entire 2024 period, deliveries were 1.3% lower than in the same period last year. This means that the decline has weakened somewhat recently. According to trader reports, the impact of bluetongue is more noticeable on the market in the north-west of Germany than in the south. This is consistent with the outbreak reports from the FLI. There were over 7,600 official reports by the beginning of September.
The price trend for butter was divided. While prices for packet butter continued to rise, the price of block butter essentially moved sideways. In food retailing, the price of a 250 g pack increased by 10 cents to 2.09 euros at the start of the year. It is doubtful whether the end of the price increase has already been reached in view of the fall and Advent season. The official quotation of the South German Butter and Cheese Exchange was 7.80 per kg for 250g packets, an increase of 0.50 euro/kg compared to the previous week.
The industry remained cautious with regard to block butter. In view of the start of production for the Christmas business, however, prices are expected to rise further here too, as availability from dairies is limited.
Prices for semi-hard cheese also developed positively last week. Food retailers were able to sell large quantities and sales were supported by advertising campaigns. Here too, dairies are concerned about the short supply of raw materials. However, demand for cheese is likely to decrease slightly overall with the end of the vacation season.
On the market for skimmed milk powder, the price increase of previous weeks could not be sustained. On the EEX, the closing price for the October term on Thursday was EUR 2690 per tonne, a decrease of a minimal EUR 10 per tonne compared to Friday of the previous week. Whole milk powder prices continued to rise. On the South German Butter and Cheese Exchange in Kempten, the price rose by around EUR 140 per tonne.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The declining milk delivery figures show the continuing shortage of supply. The availability of raw materials is likely to be further restricted by bluetongue. Demand in the EU is rising, and butter prices have probably not yet reached their peak. It is becoming increasingly difficult to push through further price increases for powder.
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