Milk deliveries in Germany are strongly influenced by the two largest production regions of Lower Saxony and Bavaria, which together account for just under 50%. Compared to the previous year, deliveries in the individual federal states remained largely unchanged in the first half of 2024. Limited increases can only be observed for Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony and Bavaria.
The standardized farm-gate prices for milk vary greatly depending on the federal state. For the months of January to May 2024, the BLE calculated provisional average prices of between 42 and 46.7 ct per kg. Dairy farmers in the southern German states of Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria and Thuringia achieved the highest prices. Hesse/Rhineland-Palatinate/Saar and Schleswig-Holstein ranked at the lower end with results above 42 and 42.77 ct/kg respectively.
Most dairies increased their base prices for the month of July-24. This was particularly noticeable in the north, while only isolated increases were recorded in the south. In the eastern German regions, farm-gate prices remained largely stable. On average, a further upward trend can be seen.
The Kiel exchange milk values calculated from butter and SMP exchange prices signal prices of around 50 ct/kg in the remaining months of Sep to Dec 2024, with the high butter prices providing the decisive support; however, the more stable SMP prices are also helping a little.
Butter: Tight supply continues to drive butter prices. There is now equal demand for packet and block butter at rising prices. Stocks are limited. The EEX exchange prices have risen again. Butter prices worldwide are also at multi-year highs.
Cheese: The prices for cheese are showing increasingly stable trends. Domestic and foreign demand is coming up against a limited supply. The comparatively long production/maturing period is slowing down a rapid supply response.
Milk powder: China's reduced demand for milk powder of all kinds is also putting pressure on prices in this country, as high EU surpluses mean that there is not a sufficient outflow of goods.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Milk production in major production regions remains at or below the previous year's level. There are shortages of butter in particular, resulting in sharply rising prices. Stable demand for cheese is supporting the upward trend in milk prices. Prices for milk powder remain weak because China, the largest buyer, is holding back. The usual seasonal decline in production in the late summer/autumn months in the northern hemisphere is partially offset by the start of production in the new dairy year in the south.
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