The start of May saw a further increase in milk volumes in Germany - as usual during the seasonal spring peak phase. According to the ZMB, 0.4% more milk was delivered to dairies in calendar week 18 than in the previous week. This brings the volume closer to the previous year's figure - the decline shrank to 0.2%. Overall, however, the annual result so far is 1.9% down on the previous year. There were mixed developments on the spot markets at the beginning of May. According to ife Kiel, the short-term milk price in Germany fell to 40.9 ct/kg in week 19 - a decline of 1.8 ct. While prices stabilized in the Netherlands, they rose slightly in northern Italy.
Demand for packaged butter increased noticeably at the beginning of May and reached a typical seasonal level - not least due to the asparagus season. Prices remained stable, with molded butter quoted at between € 7.40 and € 7.60/kg in Kempten on 14 May. In retail, branded butter (250g) cost €1.99, 20 ct more than in the previous year. In contrast, the market for block butter remained subdued - especially for long-term contracts. The exchange in Kempten recorded slightly lower prices of between €7.00 and €7.20/kg. The weaker trend also continued on the EEX in Leipzig, with an average futures price of €7,178/t - €23 less than a week earlier. At the same time, trading activity picked up: Around 3,450 tons of butter were traded in week 19 - almost four times as much as in the previous week.
In mid-May, the market for semi-hard cheese was well balanced. Demand from industry, bulk consumers and retailers remained stable, even after brief interruptions for public holidays. A further upturn is expected with higher temperatures. Southern European markets and third countries in particular contributed to exports. Despite high milk deliveries, the supply of cheese was limited and it was hardly possible to build up stocks - delivered goods were often still young. Prices remained stable: in Hanover, block products were quoted at € 4.50-4.70/kg and bread products at € 4.80-5.00/kg.
The market for food-grade skimmed milk powder was slightly dynamic in May. Short-term inquiries in particular - mostly for deliveries within three months - caused movement. Contracts for longer terms remained rare. A temporary easing of the tariff dispute between the USA and China gave rise to hopes of new impetus. The slight rise in the US dollar improved the competitiveness of European suppliers somewhat. Within Europe, price trends remained mixed. In Kempten, prices of between €2,350 and €2,450/t were quoted on May 14 - an average of €10 more than at the beginning of May. Expectations on the EEX rose significantly: the average for May 2025 to January 2026 was €2,548/t - an increase of €93. Trading volumes also increased: Around 2,970 tons were traded in week 19, around 800 tons more than before.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
While milk deliveries continue to rise towards the spring peak, demand remains stable overall. The reluctance to sign longer-term contracts is noticeable, which indicates a certain degree of uncertainty in the market environment. Stimuli from exports - for example through political easing in international trade - could provide new momentum in the coming weeks. A fundamental trend reversal in prices is not expected in the short term, especially as supply and demand are currently largely in balance.
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