The seasonal trend of declining milk deliveries has continued in recent weeks. According to the ZMB, 0.9% less raw material was delivered in week 40 than in the previous week, which corresponds to a decline of 1.7% compared to the previous year. The margin compared to the previous year is therefore 0.3%. The development of spot milk prices was mixed at the beginning of October. In the 41st calendar week, the average price in Germany fell by 0.7 cents to 60.0 cents per kilogram. In Italy, prices remained at a high level and were higher than domestic prices. The Netherlands also reported a 2.7% increase in spot market prices.
Demand for packaged butter has remained at a high level over the past few days. Manufacturers reported increased orders from food retailers and national sales statistics also showed high sales figures. Despite the price increase at the beginning of October to EUR 2.39 for a 250-gram packet of German brand butter in the entry-level price segment, consumers were not deterred and demand remained strong. However, scarce stocks meant that manufacturers had difficulty meeting all orders in full. The situation on the market for block butter was calm in mid-October. Uncertainty about future price trends hampered trading activities. Talks about deliveries for the first quarter of the coming year were held, but were hardly concluded due to differing price expectations between buyers and sellers. Short-term demand also appeared to be largely covered, meaning that few deals were concluded here either.
On the powder market, trading in food-grade skimmed milk powder was rather quiet. There were only a few new transactions and the demand for short-term deliveries was manageable. Inquiries mainly related to delivery dates in the new year, with differing price expectations, as with butter, resulting in few successful agreements. On the supply side, there was no sales pressure and production was mainly order-related. At the GDT on October 15, 2024 in New Zealand, the price index for skimmed milk powder fell compared to the previous auction. Domestic goods were therefore competitive in some cases, but hardly any deals were concluded due to the low demand from third countries. The market for feed-grade skimmed milk powder was also quiet. Demand remained low and, due to the short supply, the market as a whole was balanced and prices stable.
Demand for semi-hard cheese was high in October, particularly in the retail, industrial and GM sectors. Southern European countries and third countries also accepted the higher German cheese prices. At the same time, supply was tight as milk deliveries declined and the availability of raw materials was or is still limited. Overall, this led to low stock levels and young goods. Prices were firmer on the German cheese market: in the 42nd calendar week, block cheese was priced at between EUR 4.60 and 4.75/kg and bread cheese at between EUR 4.60 and 4.90/kg.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
There has been little change in the fundamental data on the submarkets. Although trade has become quieter in some areas, there is still no supply pressure from manufacturers. Above all, the seasonal increase in demand combined with the low availability of raw materials is supporting the market. Market participants continue to expect a stable to firm development on the milk market.
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