Worldwide, milk deliveries are currently at a declining level due to seasonal factors. In the USA, volumes remain below the previous year. In the EU as a whole, there is still a slight increase with a wide spread in the individual member states (e.g. Ireland - 8 %). In contrast, milk production in the two Oceanic countries of New Zealand and Australia is at its usual seasonal low, which is particularly pronounced this year; the new milk season does not really begin until August 2024. New Zealand continues to suffer from drought and restrained import demand from China, while the Australian dairy herd has recovered slightly. In South America, with a focus on Argentina, a sharp drop in production of more than 2% is expected due to the previous drought.
In Germany, the summer temperatures have contributed to the fact that delivery volumes have been falling for several weeks and are only just above the previous year's level, and in some federal states even below.
At 46.1 ct/kg, the average milk price paid in the EU countries in June 2024 rose again compared to the previous month (45.5 ct/kg) and is well above the previous year's level (44.3 ct/kg). The range extends from below 40 ct/kg (e.g. Lithuania) to over 50 ct/kg (e.g. Italy). Germany is at a provisional 45.7 ct/kg.
The second July 2024 Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction brought the strong setback at the beginning of July 2024 to a halt with an average increase of +0.4%. The recent weak results in the butter sector in the pre-auction were made up for to a considerable extent. Butter prices are in a 5-year high price range. The August date in particular stands out with strong premiums of around +11%. Weak demand from China is making itself felt in milk powder prices with falling results. The auction volume remains at an increased level of 22,954 tons.
The market prices for butter and skimmed milk powder (SMP) on the EEX Leibzig largely moved sideways in July and August. There is little room for upward movement for butter, while there is still room for increases for SMP. The Kiel exchange milk value is calculated at 47 ct/kg for the fall months of 2024
Consumer prices for milk and dairy products remained largely constant in the first half of 2024.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Stable to generally positive expectations characterize the current market assessment due to limited supply and partly favorable demand with a focus on butter and cheese.
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