21.
12.24
Pre-Christmas business drives demand for butter

Milk News, 21.12.2024

Bullish
  • Persistently scarce availability of raw materials
  • Declining delivery volumes
  • Christmas business picking up
Bearish
  • International price pressure
  • Partial reluctance among buyers due to high prices

In typical seasonal fashion, the downward trend in milk deliveries continued in mid-November. According to the ZMB, 0.6% less raw material was delivered to dairies than in previous years. The dairies also recorded 1.2% less raw material overall than in the same week last year. Since the beginning of the year, 0.4% less milk has been delivered than in the same period last year. Raw material availability remained tight due to the persistently low milk supply. In recent days, producers have concentrated primarily on the production of contract goods. If liquid raw material was available, it was often placed on the spot market due to the high price level. Here, a price of 60.4 cents/kg was quoted by the ife institute. An increase of 0.3 cents compared to the previous week.

The market for skimmed milk powder remained stable in mid-November, with demand remaining high both domestically and abroad. Manufacturers were able to supply the requested quantities well, so that contracts were concluded for both short-term and later delivery dates. Due to the recent global rise in prices, domestic goods were also able to position themselves internationally. Solid demand and the international price level ensured that the price range in Kempten was raised further. Contract prices on the EEX also trended firmer.

In the first two weeks of November, sales of molded butter in the food retail sector increased, driven by the pre-Christmas business. The supply situation on the butter market remained tight, which led to logistical difficulties in some regions. A packet of German branded butter currently costs €2.39 in food retail, which is 80 cents more than in the previous year. Prices for block butter rose slightly, while production was only partially profitable for manufacturers due to high industrial cream prices. On the EEX, prices for block butter fell compared to the previous week and trading volumes declined. The export business remained challenging as domestic prices were higher than international prices. At the second GlobalDairyTrade tender in November, butter prices rose slightly but remained below the domestic level.

The situation on the German cheese market has hardly changed in recent days either. Strong demand from various trade channels met with limited supply. Food retailers in particular continued to have high demand, which in some cases could only just be met. In addition, both industry and the bulk consumer sector called up their contract quantities as planned. There were hardly any free quantities available, meaning that only limited contracts were concluded. The export business with domestic goods was also stable, with both European and non-European countries showing interest. Despite global competition, there was no pressure to sell due to high domestic demand.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

On the submarkets, prices are currently still being supported primarily by the scarce availability of raw materials and the start of the Christmas season. This is unlikely to change much before the holidays. Looking ahead to the coming year, however, prices are showing slightly weaker trends.

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