In the 37th calendar week, milk deliveries in Germany reportedly fell by 1.0% compared to the previous week. Compared to the same week last year, deliveries fell by 1.7%. From January to mid-September, farmers supplied 0.2% less milk than in the previous year. Trading activity on the powder markets remained quiet, particularly for skimmed milk powder. Trading was characterized by low buying interest and hesitant deals, especially for short-term deliveries. Uncertainty about the future supply situation influenced negotiations after the turn of the year. Manufacturers showed little interest in new contracts due to low inventories and order-related production. The average price for skimmed milk powder on the EEX fell to an average of EUR 2,683 per tonne. This meant that the delivery dates from September 2024 to May 2025 were valued EUR 46 lower. The prices for the delivery dates from November 2024 to May 2025 were higher than the current spot prices, while the dates in September and October 2024 remained within the range. The trading volume amounted to 1,350 tonnes, 155 tonnes less than in the previous week. The supply of raw materials for butter production also remains difficult, as the quantities delivered are declining and ingredients remain low. Dairies have to plan carefully, which is leading to tight stocks, especially for packaged butter. Market participants expect supply to remain tight, especially during the Christmas season. Demand in the food retail sector remains stable. Demand for block butter has calmed down, but prices remain firm. Long-term contracts are rarely concluded. Butter prices rose slightly on the EEX in Leipzig, while the price on the GlobalDairyTrade tender in New Zealand fell by 1.7%, making European butter unattractive on the global market. The lower delivery volumes are also making themselves felt on the cheese market. The current situation is leading to a tighter supply and higher cheese prices. Existing contracts are being fulfilled, but additional requests are not. Block and bread products are in high demand. Food retailers and the industry are accepting higher prices. Seasonal sales in the GM sector and good exports to southern Europe are being recorded, while exports to third countries are difficult due to high prices.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Firm prices have continued to prevail on the milk market. Supported by the scarce availability of raw materials and the increase in demand during the fall and Christmas period, market participants continue to expect a stable to firmer price structure. However, bluetongue is a particular cause for concern. The disease is continuing to spread and is affecting milk yield, among other things. In line with the current situation, the lower supply of raw materials is unlikely to change much.
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