05.
09.24
Milk deliveries continue to decline - prices firmer

Milk News, 5th / Sep / 2024

Bullish
  • Seasonal decline in delivery volumes
  • Rising demand
  • Spread of bluetongue disease
Bearish
  • Competitive pressure from New Zealand
  • High prices deter buyers
  • Restrained trading on the submarkets

The seasonal decline in milk deliveries continued at the end of August. A decline of 0.9% was recorded for the 34th calendar week compared to the previous week. Compared to the previous year, the decline was 0.5%. From January to the end of August, dairies delivered 0.1% less milk than in the previous year. A further decline is expected throughout September, with the spread of the bluetongue virus also impacting milk production. Last month, sales of packaged butter fell slightly following an increase in previous months. Prices for packaged butter rose slightly to between EUR 7.05 and 7.55/kg. The price of a 250-gram packet of German branded butter in retail increased to EUR 2.09, which was above EUR 2.00 for the first time since the end of 2022. The market for block butter was more active and prices rose to between EUR 7.80 and EUR 8.30/kg, with an average price of EUR 8.05/kg. On the EEX in Leipzig, the butter price rose to EUR 7,442/t. Prices on GlobalDairyTrade fell by 0.9% to USD 6,675/t (EUR 6,049/t), meaning that German butter remained less competitive on the global market. On the powder market, the slight upturn in food-grade skimmed milk powder continued at the beginning of September. Rising prices have increased buying interest again, although the quantities traded are still limited. Buyers are securing goods before prices rise further. Stocks are low. This is leading to higher prices for skimmed milk concentrate. The Süddeutsche Butter- und Käse-Börse in Kempten increased the quotation for food-grade skimmed milk powder to a range of EUR 2,500 to 2,670/t on 4 September, which represents an increase of EUR 70 compared to the last week of August. On the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig, prices for skimmed milk powder will rise from September 2024 to May 2025. At the end of the 35th calendar week, skimmed milk powder was traded for an average of EUR 2,689/t, which corresponds to an increase of EUR 42

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market and the submarkets are currently characterized above all by the short supply of raw materials. Prices have firmed up again in the past few days. The downward trend is unlikely to change much in the coming weeks, so market participants expect prices to remain firm. However, the higher prices are also resulting in quieter trading, with buyers in particular adopting a wait-and-see approach.

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