11.
04.24
Block butter is in better demand, especially in the short term

Milk News, 11th / Apr / 2024

Bullish
  • Milk quantity below previous year’s level
  • low cheese stocks
  • End of fasting month of Ramadan
  • international competitiveness mostly restored
Bearish
  • seasonal milk yield development
  • Reluctance to buy skimmed milk powder
  • Red Sea situation
Education Price Index Skimmed milk powder €/ton
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
10.04.2024 2,375 € 2.370 € 2,375 € 2,373 € 38 €
03.04.2024 2,390 € 2,300€ 2,315 € 2,335 € -2 €
27.03.2024 2,415 € 2,280 € 2,315 € 2.337 € -35 €
butter €/ton
publication Germany Netherlands France index the change
10.04.2024 5,900 € 5.850 € 5,500€ 5,750 € 13 €
10.01.2024 5,650 € 5,720 € 5,840 € 5,737 € 94 €
27.03.2024 5,650 € 5,610 € 5,670 € 5.643 € -10 €
Liquid milk ct/kg
publication Germany Netherlands Denmark Ireland index the change
12.03.2024 45.84 46.31 45.19 47.2 46.14 1.40
12.02.2024 45.47 46.31 42.65 44.54 44.74 1.81

For the first time since the start of the seasonal increase in milk quantities, the milk quantities recorded in the 13th calendar week are slightly lower than in the previous week. Around 0.2% less raw milk was delivered than in the 12th calendar week. Over the first 13 calendar weeks, around 0.6% less raw milk was produced compared to the same period last year. Industrial cream is also trending firmer this week. The good demand for molded butter has also increased the willingness to buy cream. Skimmed milk concentrate is also somewhat firmer; the supply surplus that existed before Easter is no longer present. The spot market is showing stable trends, rising by 0.7 cents to 34.2 cents/kg week-on-week. The recovery in demand for block butter is continuing this week. Prices in Kempten rose yesterday at both ends of the trading range. Short-term deliveries are particularly in demand. There is also a trend towards firmer demand in the export business. On a weekly basis, the EEX is showing firmer price trends, especially in the earlier dates. The number of contracts traded has recently been declining. Molded butter is no longer being called up as much as it was before Easter. Due to early deliveries by the food retail trade, goods dispatches are currently lower. Here and there, the ordered quantities are being sold off with special offers, the average price for a packet is 1.75 euros/250 grams. The price in Kempten is unchanged from the week. The market for cheese is stable. Goods dispatches and demand have also recently decreased slightly, but calls and orders are still larger than usual for this time of year. After Easter, bulk consumers and industry showed increased demand again, while food retailers have reduced their orders somewhat. The slightly declining demand is being used to replenish stocks. These are still comparatively young and in small quantities. The prices are unchanged in both Hanover and Kempten. Last week, many market observers had still expected skimmed milk powder to bottom out. This is not indicated by the price quotation in Kempten, but the EEX is showing slightly firmer trends week-on-week. Overall, business activities have continued to increase. There are still no sustainable impulses from the export market, and traders are hoping that the end of the fasting month this week will bring a short-term revival in demand from these regions. The lower milk deliveries compared to the previous year are supporting this. Supply and demand are generally balanced. Whole milk powder is being traded in a quiet manner. Due to the lack of international competitiveness, business activities are mainly concentrated on the intra-European market. Prices are trending sideways. Whey powder, on the other hand, has been firmer. Manufacturers are reporting increasing demand from Asia. Due to the high cheese production, dairies currently have sufficient whey available for powder production, but there are no signs of excess supply. In contrast, feed grades are less in demand at the beginning of April.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market is in a stable condition in mid-April. The increase in milk volumes is hardly a burden. Demand is good overall, even if the prices of skimmed milk powder are still under pressure.

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