14.
03.24
There is a lack of stimulus on the powder markets

Milk News, 14th / Mar / 2024

Bullish
  • Impulses for Easter business expected
  • Raw material deliveries are stagnating
  • Export business is increasing
Bearish
  • international competitiveness is increasingly not present
  • Buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach
  • Processing primarily of contract goods
Quotation results dairy products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
03/13/24 2,400 until 2,575
02/28/24 2,450 until 2.600
Branded butter (shaped 250 g), €/kg
03/13/24 5.84 until 6.00
02/28/24 5.69 until 6.00
Block butter (loose, 25 kg)
13.03.24 5.80 until 5.90
02/28/24 5.90 until 6.00
Gouda/Edam, block (48%/45%/40% fat in dry matter), €/kg
03/13/24 4.05 until 4.25
02/28/24 4.05 until 4.25

The slow increase in milk quantities delivered continued last week. The recorded quantity of milk delivered has fallen slightly again. 0.2% less milk was delivered compared to the previous week. The gap compared to the same period last year remains at 0.4%. In summary, 1.1% less milk was produced in January and February than in 2023. The submarkets have not been able to find a consistent direction in the last few days. While the fat side continued to be characterized by firm price developments, the protein side was weaker due to the excess supply. On the spot market, the price in week 10 was 36.5 cents per kg, which is 0.3 cents less than the week before. The demand for butter has not been as dynamic as many market participants had hoped. The stimulus from the upcoming Easter business, especially for packaged butter, remains at a below-average level. The upcoming asparagus season offers hope. As a complementary good, the early start - producers expect the first harvest after Easter - could have a positive effect on sales. The prices for the 250 gram package in the lower price segment were 1.69 euros. In Kempten the price level increased slightly. In the case of block butter, orders were received quickly and the sales volume increased in the last few days, particularly for short-term deliveries. The prices were able to continue to prevail at the existing level, but there was not enough for further increases. Demand in exports had calmed down, particularly due to the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, during which demand for butter from the Middle East is significantly lower overall. Demand on the market for semi-hard cheese remains at a high level. In the food retail sector in particular, large quantities of goods were ordered, so that the dairies concentrated primarily on serving the contract staff. With a view to the next two weeks and the upcoming Easter business, market participants expect continued brisk demand. From the catering sector it is reported that the requests are not consistent. While there was hardly any demand for goods in some areas, sales from southern Europe rose significantly again. Here the holiday season usually starts with the Easter business. In Kempten, the price was maintained at the previous week's level. There is a lack of stimulus on the powder markets. Trade is often undynamic in individual areas. Food-grade skimmed milk powder continues to be available in sufficient quantities. The calls focused primarily on contract goods. There were hardly any additional deals. Buyers were extremely hesitant and with the recently increased supply of raw materials, buyers seemed to be hoping for falling prices. Weak trading was also evident on the EEX. A contract was traded here in week 10 at an average price of 2,574 euros/ton. This is a price decrease of 98 euros compared to the previous week. The volume traded was 948 contracts and 4,740 tonnes. The market developments in the markets for whole milk powder and whey powder are similar. The supply was largely insufficient to meet demand and repeatedly put prices under pressure.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

On the milk market, market participants are waiting for the next two weeks. Impulses are expected in all sub-markets, particularly with the Easter business. Currently, the quantities on offer are often sufficient to cover demand, and buyers are also taking a wait-and-see approach. According to general expectations, trade is likely to be a little more dynamic during Easter business, so that surcharges may also be enforceable again under certain circumstances.

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