16.
05.24
Concentrate markets set the direction

Milk News, 16th / May / 2024

Bullish
  • Milk peak reached
  • Low inventories of cheese with good demand
  • Impulses from the ice age and asparagus season
Bearish
  • Weak demand from Asia/situation on the Red Sea
  • Milk volume currently above previous year
Education Price index Skimmed milk powder €/t
publication Germany Netherlands France Index Amendment
08.05.2024 2.380 € 2.390 € 2.430 € 2.400 € 25 €
08.02.2024 2.365 € 2.370 € 2.390 € 2.375 € 3 €
02.05.2024 2.355 € 2.370 € 2.390 € 2.372 € -1 €
butter €/t
Publication Germany Netherlands France Index Amendment
08.05.2024 5.965 € 6.050 € 5.825 € 5.947 € 69 €
08.02.2024 5.910 € 5.890 € 5.835 € 5.878 € 35 €
02.05.2024 5.850 € 5.870 € 5.810 € 5.843 € -19 €
Liquid milk ct/kg
Publication Germany The Netherlands Denmark Ireland index Change to
13.05.2024 45,92 46,50 46,13 43,12 45,42 0,01
12.04.2024 45,75 46,00 45,21 44,67 45,41 -0,73

Milk volumes remain stable at a high level. Compared to the previous week, it has even decreased slightly, exceeding the previous year's week. Overall, however, there was a shortfall of around 0.2% in milk volumes in the first 18 calendar weeks. Impulses from the asparagus and ice cream season are arriving on the concentrate markets. The outdoor catering sector also has a higher demand for cream. Skimmed milk concentrate is increasingly in demand, particularly in Europe, and prices are rising. Spot market milk continues to recover and is quoted 1.4 cents firmer at 33.7 cents/kg.

Both molded and block butts repeatedly gain in value. The market for packaged butter is unchanged. Due to the public holidays, food retailers are calling off more goods from manufacturers, while the asparagus season is providing additional impetus on the butter market. Block butter is mainly requested for later dates, with short-term deliveries rarely discussed. In terms of price, buyers and sellers are often still far apart, but it is worth noting that more and more inquiries are now also being received from European vacation regions in Germany. Prices on the EEX have recently firmed somewhat, but trading activity has recently been somewhat lower.

As usual, the market for cheese is balanced. Consumer demand and thus the call-offs from the food retail trade are still at a comparatively high level in mid-May. Additional inquiries are now also coming from the food industry and bulk consumers, although these do not always result in new contracts. The European vacation regions are continuing to call off goods and have shown increased demand, particularly for the holidays and now also for Whitsun due to high numbers of holidaymakers. As cheese production is good due to the high milk supply, prices remain stable. Stocks are barely growing. Prices are unchanged from the previous week and have been stable since the end of February.

Following the slight price increase last week, food-grade skimmed milk powder was also able to make gains yesterday, Wednesday, in Kempten. This trend can also be seen on the EEX futures exchange in Leipzig. Transactions and discussions are primarily focused on deliveries in the second half of the year. Due to low inventories, manufacturers are still under no pressure to sell. There is demand for exports, but in terms of volume it remains well below expectations. Whole milk powder is also quoted somewhat firmer. The Süddeutsche Butter- und Käsebörse (South German Butter and Cheese Exchange) quoted an average of 30 euros/t more yesterday. Business here is mainly limited to the European domestic market. Whey powder is quoted unchanged. Demand continues to rise here too, but buyers and sellers are generally unable to agree on prices.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Impulses are coming. From the asparagus season and also from the warmer temperatures that are boosting the export economy. Exports remain problematic. Although they are competitive, the situation on the Red Sea makes exports to Asia expensive. In addition, the economic situation in China is dampening the appetite of consumers there. The fundamentally stable development is therefore likely to continue for the time being.

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