19.
09.24
Scarce availability of raw materials supports prices

Milk News, 19th / Sep / 2024

Bullish
  • Scarce availability of raw materials
  • Spread of bluetongue disease
  • Rising seasonal demand
Bearish
  • Global price pressure
  • Weak demand from third countries

Last week, 0.6% less milk was delivered in Germany than in the previous week and 2.2% less than in the previous year. This was due to high temperatures and bluetongue disease. From January to the beginning of September, dairies recorded 0.2% less raw material than in the same period last year. On the butter market, demand for packaged butter in the food retail sector remained stable, but sales volumes fell slightly. Some branded varieties were offered at lower prices than private labels. The price for a 250 gram packet of German branded butter remained at EUR 2.09 in the 38th calendar week.

Demand for block butter declined slightly. The availability of raw materials for butter remains problematic, as raw milk deliveries have decreased. Production is particularly focused on fixed supply contracts. Stocks have continued to fall significantly. Short-term deliveries were able to record firmer prices in some cases. In view of the upcoming Christmas season, when demand is expected to increase significantly, the shortage could become even more acute.

The situation on the powder markets has calmed down somewhat. After prices for skimmed milk powder had risen significantly, a sideways movement prevailed last week. Market participants took a wait-and-see approach and concentrated on settling contracts. Hardly any contracts were concluded for short-term deliveries. On the EEX Leipzig, the price for skimmed milk powder fell to EUR 2,729/t for delivery dates from September 2024 to May 2025. 1,505 tons were traded in the 37th calendar week, 1,680 tons less than in the previous week. Globally, the price rose to 2,525 EUR/t, but remained below German prices, which meant that demand from third countries remained subdued.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The availability of raw materials in particular remains problematic. Milk deliveries are declining due to high temperatures and disease. Overall, the limited availability of raw materials is leading to stabilization and in some cases firmer prices, particularly in view of the upcoming autumn and Christmas business.

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