Milk News, 20.02.2025

The seasonal increase in milk volumes continued in the first weeks of February. Nevertheless, volumes still remained below the previous year's level. The ZMB found that in the 6th calendar week, volumes rose by 0.3% compared to the previous week, but the overall result was still 2.7% below the previous year's figure. A noticeable recovery therefore still failed to materialize. Meanwhile, the price trend on the spot market was mixed. The ife Institute in Kiel recorded an average price of 48.40 Ct/kg in the past week (down around 0.4 Ct on the previous week), while the spot milk price in the Netherlands rose by 0.5 Ct. In northern Italy, on the other hand, prices declined.

On the butter market, trade in packaged butter was solid compared to block butter. Manufacturers were satisfied with the demand for packaged butter. Sales figures were in line with seasonal expectations, even though national sales statistics show a slight decline in call-offs recently. The reduction in retail prices at the beginning of the month has hardly had any impact on sales so far. The 250 gram packet was priced at 2.19 euros. The block butter market remained subdued in mid-February. Buyers were waiting for price developments and, above all, possible price reductions, while manufacturers felt little pressure to sell. Inquiries from the industry rarely led to deals, as the price expectations were far apart. Prices continued to fall: on the Kempten exchange, block butter traded at between EUR 6.95 and 7.10/kg on February 19, 10 to 20 cents less than in the previous week. Prices also fell on the EEX in Leipzig, albeit at a slower rate. Futures for February to October 2025 fell by an average of EUR 22 to EUR 6,973/t. The trading volume shrank again to 710 tons (142 contracts).

Demand for semi-hard cheese remained at a persistently high level in mid-February, with food retailers in particular dominating the market and ordering above-average quantities. However, the food service and industrial sectors also called up their goods as planned, while European countries reported further demand. In contrast, import restrictions due to foot-and-mouth disease remain an issue in business with third countries and business is limited. Overall, however, the market is also returning to normal. At the same time, stocks remained tight - the level in the maturing warehouses has barely had time to recover and remains relatively low. Short-term inquiries could hardly be met and there is no relief in sight due to the limited supply of raw materials. Although prices remained stable last week, market participants expect prices to rise in the long term.

In mid-February, the market for food-grade skimmed milk powder was stable. While demand from the European food industry remained solid, new business with new trading partners declined somewhat. Hopes for new impetus came from a trade fair in Dubau. Third countries, especially from parts of North Africa, were particularly interested in European goods. Export restrictions continued to exist in countries due to foot-and-mouth disease. Prices for skimmed milk powder were mostly stable to slightly higher, reflecting the increased costs for skimmed milk concentrate. On the EEX in Leipzig, futures for February to October fell slightly to EUR 2,671/t, a decrease of EUR 21 compared to the previous week. The trading volume rose to 2,020 tons. International prices for skimmed milk powder also weakened after two increases. At the GlobalDairyTrade tender in New Zealand, the price index fell by 2.5% to an average of EUR 2,630/t on February 18. This development made German goods competitive on the global market, especially as the USA, the largest exporter, demanded higher prices.