24.
07.24
Market mostly quiet despite peak travel season

Milk News, 24th / Jul / 2024

Bullish
  • Seasonally limited milk supply
  • Positive outlook for cheese and butter
  • Seasonally high sales of drinking milk
Bearish
  • Subdued demand for milk powder
  • Declining exports

Wed, July 24, 2024

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has added to its estimates for the global dairy market in its semi-annual July 24 issue. Contrary to earlier expectations, milk production in 2024 is expected to increase only moderately in major production regions. In Argentina, a 7% decline is even expected. A 1% reduction in production is also expected in New Zealand. In the first quarter of 2024, the average delivery volume in the major exporting countries is still -0.5% compared to the previous year. Only in Australia are increases of +7% expected due to the rebuilding of cow herds. In the USA and the EU-27, production is expected to be just above the previous year's level.

Milk deliveries in the EU in the first half of 2024 will be around 0.7% above the previous year's level. Poland and a number of smaller countries such as Italy are the main contributors to this increase. In contrast, milk production in Ireland in particular is falling sharply. A downward trend can also be observed in the Netherlands.

Selected prices/rates for dairy products in Germany (sources: Kempten/Hannover, EEX, Ife, GDT)

In Germany, delivery volumes were slightly higher again in week 28. However, the milk content remains lower compared to the previous year.

Sales of milk and dairy products on the German market are restricted by the holiday/vacation period. Demand behavior is rather cautious.

Butter prices on the EEX Leipzig remain unchanged, while skimmed milk powder prices (feed products) have fallen.

However, food-grade skimmed milk powder prices are firmer in the trade. Butter prices in the trade remain unchanged from the previous week.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

During the peak vacation period, prices remain comparatively stable due to limited milk supplies. Sales of drinking milk, cheese and butter continue to be brisk. Demand for milk powder in the animal feed sector is more critical. Rising expectations are focused on the end of the travel season.

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