31.
07.24
Market and price trends during the holiday-related summer break

Milk News, 31st / Jul / 2024

Bullish
  • . seasonal decrease in milk supply
  • Tight supply situation for butter
  • Strong demand for cheese
Bearish
  • Weak demand for milk powder
  • China's reluctance to import

In Germany, milk deliveries exceeded their seasonal peak in May 2024. Volumes are only slightly above the previous year's level. The downward trend is only slightly interrupted by the slight increase in week 28. In some federal states with significant drought problems, production is already below this level again. Experience shows that the seasonal downward trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks and months.

In the EU-27, the seasonal fall in milk deliveries is only +0.7% above the previous year, with considerable differences between the individual member states. The range extends from -6.2% in Ireland to +3.5% in Poland. In the important production region of France, the difference compared to the previous year is -1.3% and in the Netherlands -1%.

Selected prices/rates for dairy products in Germany (sources: Kempten/Hannover, EEX, Ife, GDT)

The tight supply situation in the milk fat sector continues to ensure persistently high milk prices; the national average farm-gate price for June rose to 45.5 ct/kg.

Butter: Butter prices remain at a high level due to the tight supply situation. In particular, packet butter is ahead of block butter, although the latter is increasing. The reason for the butter shortage is largely due to the low fat content of the milk as a result of the high temperatures. However, butter is also being traded at record prices worldwide.

Cheese: Cheese prices remain above average. This is due to strong demand both at home and abroad and limited supply. A corresponding production/maturing period is delaying a rapid supply response.

Milk powder : The abundant availability of milk powder worldwide as a result of China's reluctance to buy is putting pressure on prices.

The current peak phase of the holiday/vacation season is causing limited changes in the market and prices

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Market and price trends are currently in a kind of summer lull due to the vacation period. Nevertheless, there is a tendency for prices to rise, triggered by a foreseeable decline in supply in a tight starting situation.

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