04.
04.24
Molded butter becomes firmer - bottoming is expected with skimmed milk powder

Milk News, 4th / Apr / 2024

Bullish
  • good cheese demand
  • Consumer demand high
  • Expectations asparagus season
  • increasing international demand
Bearish
  • Price competition New Zealand and USA
  • seasonal milk yield development
  • Export demand from China dampened
Quotation results for dairy products Germany:
Skimmed milk powder (food grade), €/t
03.04.24 2,300 until 2,480
27.03.24 2,330 until 2.500
Branded butter (molded 250 g), €/kg
03.04.24 5.84 until 6.05
27.03.24 5.84 until 6.00
Block butter (loose, 25 kg)
03.04.24 5.60 until 5.70
27.03.24 5.60 until 5.70
Gouda/Edam , block (48%/45%/40% fat i.d.), €/kg
03.04.24 4.05 until 4.25
27.03.24 4.05 until 4.25

The milk quantity continues to rise significantly. In comparison to the 12th calendar week, around 0.7% more raw material was delivered in the 13th calendar week. This means that the milk quantity compared to the previous week is above the level of the previous year for the second week in a row. Overall, however, around 0.7% less raw milk has been delivered so far this year. Industrial cream is showing slightly firmer tendencies. Skimmed milk concentrate is available in sufficient quantities, but the supply surplus has decreased. Prices are moving sideways for the time being. Spot market milk was quoted in the last week of March at 33.5 cents/kg on average across Germany, which is 1 cent/kg firmer. Trade in block butter is described as satisfactory and seasonal. Here and there, however, there are already reports of a slight upturn in demand. Inquiries relate primarily to short-term delivery dates. The recently weak exports have also seen a slight upturn in demand, but export deals are currently still rare. The quotation in Kempten was continued unchanged from the previous week. When it comes to molded butter, manufacturers are satisfied with the Easter business. Traders are expecting stimulus from the asparagus business in the coming weeks. In most grocery stores, the 250 gram package still costs 1.69 euros, but in some cases prices are already as high as 1.75 euros. The price in Kempten rose yesterday at the upper end by 5 cents per kilogram. After Easter, many market participants had expected demand for semi-hard cheese to be subdued. However, this will not happen this week. The requests and inquiries continue to be extensive. The LEH advertises cheese in special offers and therefore continues to purchase a large number of goods from the dairies. The production volumes are high and because of the increased milk deliveries, the manufacturers also have sufficient quantities of raw materials available. Stocks are growing slightly again, but are still young and significantly lower than average for this time of year. Demand from southern European holiday regions is described as being at a normal level. However, only a small amount of cheese is exported to third countries. Offers from New Zealand and the USA are often cheaper than those from European manufacturers. Food-grade skimmed milk powder fell at yesterday's listing in Kempten. Because of the Easter holidays and the shortened week, the market is quiet overall. Nevertheless, there are increasing reports of new deals, which primarily relate to short-term deliveries. With the exception of a larger tender in North Africa, demand on the global market is calm. China in particular is currently showing little interest in skimmed milk powder. There are initial signs of price bottoming out on the EEX. In the Global Dairy Trade Tender, skimmed milk powder went north by 1.4 percent. Whole milk powder is traded very quietly. Demand comes primarily from the domestic food industry. Production is mostly limited to ordered goods; there is hardly any production for the warehouse. Whey powder is currently widely available due to increased cheese production. Discussions about short- and long-term deliveries are currently ongoing, but no major deals have been recorded yet. The quotations are unchanged from the previous week.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The milk market is stable overall. Demand for many dairy products is good, but price expectations are being dampened by the increasing milk volume.

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