EU Commission - Short Term Outlook (fall edition) - Milk production increases in 2013/14
In the fall edition of the short-term market outlook report, the EU Commission estimates a slight increase in production of 1.1% for the current dairy year. This estimate is based on a noted increase in cow numbers, improved basic feed stocks and the high milk prices with now moderate concentrate prices.
In the past year, high basic and concentrated feed costs prevented many dairy farmers from going into full production. Milk deliveries fell by -0.8%. Only 94% of the EU quota was met. Significant under-deliveries were observed in the south-eastern European countries. At -7.5%, France was one of the biggest under-suppliers in the Western EU. However, the UK and Ireland also reduced their milk production.
Only three countries - Germany, Austria and, for the first time, Poland - slightly exceeded their quota in 2012/13.
For 2013/14, Denmark and the Netherlands are again expected to see a significant oversupply. There are also signs of strong growth in France. However, production in the new 13 member states is expected to remain largely unchanged. Stagnation is expected in Poland. A further decline in production is expected in the Czech Republic and Hungary.
The above-average price trend driven by global demand, with a focus on Asia, has so far lost little of its momentum. Whether this remains the case in the coming months will depend on demand in China.
