July 2024: USDA adds to global dairy market estimates
In its semi-annual report on the global dairy market, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) assumes only slight increases in milk production in 2024 in major production regions. In the first quarter of 2024, the delivery volume in the major exporting countries will initially still be -0.5% compared to the previous year.
At -7.4%, Argentinian milk production in particular is down significantly due to the economic difficulties in that country. Milk volumes in New Zealand - the world's largest exporter - are also down by just under -1%. In the USA and the EU, milk production is only just above the previous year's level. In Australia alone, an increase of +3.3% is expected due to the rebuilding of cow herds following the wildfires.
There are shifts in production trends between the individual dairy products. Whole milk powder is increasingly losing value, not least due to the reluctance of the world's largest importer, China, to buy it.
Skimmed milk powder is showing even greater declines in almost all major export regions such as the EU, USA and New Zealand. The exception is Australia with an increase of 17%.
Cheese, on the other hand, is benefiting from increasing global demand. The growth rates are between 1 and 5 %.
Butter production varies from location to location. A reduction of 1% is expected in the EU-27. In New Zealand, milk is increasingly being used for butter production because sales opportunities in Asia are more favorable than for milk powder. In China, butter consumption is increasing, particularly in the bakery industry, where the higher quality imported products are preferred to domestic products.
The international price level for milk and dairy products is above the 10-year average, with butter and cheese in the highest price range.
